Analysis of Global Economic Growth

Analysis of Global Economic Growth World economic growth 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 World Economic Outlook: According to the World Bank, world economic growth accelerated sharply in 2004. In aggregate, the year 2004 has been the healthiest year for developing countries since the last three decades. East Asian countries have come out of the 1997 crisis and are now performing well. The ongoing economic boom in China as well as the surge in activities registered in Japan were major factors in promoting growth in the region. Latin American countries and Sub-Saharan Africa also had a better year. This performance reflects a fortuitous combination of long-term secular trends built on a foundation of better macroeconomic management and an improved domestic investment climate converging with a cyclical recovery of the global economy. There were however some lingering imbalances in the global economy associated with the rising twin deficits in the United States, a delayed recovery in Europe, coupled with high and volatile oil prices, and questions about the path of Chinas economy that might constitute risks to the pace of growth in developing countries over the medium term. Worlds economic growth is likely to slow down in 2005 with a projected rate of 3.2%. Several factors are likely to contribute to the slower growth. It is believed that the investment cycle in the US has peaked, therefore resulting in a slowdown in growth. Furthermore, world demand has far exceeded world supply, resulting in a substantial increase in oil and other commodity prices, therefore reducing demand in other countries. Also, increases in interest rates are likely to slow the investment growth. The US is likely to finance its large budget deficits through tighter fiscal policies and in Europe countries will tighten their budgetary control to remain within the realm of Maastricht limits. Table 1: World economic outlook Real Growth Rate (%) 2002 2003 2004 2005* World 1.7 2.7 4.0 3.2 High Income Countries 1.3 2.1 3.5 2.7 Euro Zone 0.9 0.5 1.8 2.1 USA 1.9 3.0 4.3 3.2 Japan -0.3 2.4 4.3 1.8 Developing Countries 3.4 5.2 6.1 5.4 East Asia and Pacific 6.7 7.9 7.8 7.1 Latin America and Caribbean -0.6 1.6 4.7 3.7 Sub Saharan Africa 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.6 *projected figures Source: Global Economic Prospects 2005, World Bank. 1.2 Mauritian Economic Outlook: Mauritian economic growth in 2004 was positive and stabilised at 4.2%, slightly lower than the 4.4% recorded in 2003. On the one hand, internal demand constituted an important dragging factor, with a 6.3% growth in consumption expenditure compared to 4.5% in 2003. On the other hand, lingering uncertainties linked to the wave of change in the international economic order, uninterrupted trade liberalisation and the gradual loss of our long-standing preferences had a dampening effect on growth. The recent run-up in oil prices was also a constraining factor on economic buoyancy. Business confidence appeared to be quite timid in 2004. However, in spite of an overall deceleration in the rate of investment, which grew by 5.5%, compared to 10.0% in 2003, private sector investment grew by a high 13.2% as opposed to a negative 2.2% in 2003. Moreover, international perception about Mauritius remained positive, and foreign investments in hotels and ICT projects were at a relatively high level. Despite the stable growth rate, several macroeconomic and sectoral performances were relatively unfavourable. Savings rate was lower, registering 23.3% of GDP in 2004 against 25.4% in 2003. Inflation rate was higher in 2004, reaching 5.5%, as opposed to 3.9% in 2003. Overall external trade worsened, from a surplus of Rs. 2 billion in 2003 to a deficit on Rs. 3.9 billion in 2004, as a result of a very large increase in the merchandise trade deficit, from Rs. 8.4 billion to Rs. 15.7 billion. On a sectoral basis, industries were faced with a restricted margin of manoeuvre as a result of increasing international competition from lower-cost producers. Repercussions were felt in the EPZ sector, which registered a negative growth rate of 5% in 2004, following the deceleration of 6% in 2003. The tourism sector, in spite of its apparent dynamism, recorded a growth rate of only 2.6%, compared to 3.0% in 2003. Financial services experienced some inertia, with a low expansion of 1.0%, compared to a high 7.2% in 2004. However, the agricultural sector expanded by 5.1% in 2004, in contrast to the low 1.9% recorded in 2003 and the non-EPZ sector grew by 5.0% in spite of the gradual reduction of tariff protection. 2.0 ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE FOR 2004 2.1 National Accounts: Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by a moderate 4.2% in 2004, compared to 4.4% in 2003. At current basic prices, GDP increased from Rs. 137.9 billion in 2003 to Rs. 151.7 billion. GDP per capita at current basic prices increased by 10.1%, to attain Rs. 122,984 in 2004. In US dollar terms, GDP per capita reached US$ 4,477, 11.7% higher than the previous year, when it reached US$4,010. It is worth noting also that at Purchasing Power Parity, GDP per capita in dollars was estimated at US$ 11,400 in 2003. For the second consecutive year, net income from the rest of the world was negative, with Rs. – 415 million in 2004, compared to Rs. – 833 million in 2003. Table 2: Output at current basic prices: Unit 2001 2002 2003 2004 Real GDP growth rate % +5.6 +1.8 +4.4 +4.2 GDP Rs. Million 117,720 125,260 137,868 151,725 Net income from abroad Rs. Million 393 396 833 415 GNI Rs. Million 118,113 125,656 137,035 151,310 GDP/capita Rs. 98,086 103,479 112,720 122,984 US$ US$ (PPP)* 3,380.9 9,609 3,462.2 10,810 4,010.0 11,400 4,477.4 n/a Exchange Rate, annual av. mid-rate Rs/$ 29.012 29.888 28.11 27.468 * GDP at Purchasing Power Parity provides a more reasonable international GDP comparison among nations.Source: CIA Fact Book 2004 While the EPZ sector continued to register negative growth rates for the third consecutive year, almost all other sectors recorded positive growth rates in 2004.   Non-EPZ grew by +5.0% in 2004, slightly lower than in 2003, when the growth rate was +5.8%. After high growth rates registered in 2002 (+7.6%) and 2003 (+11.1%) mainly due to high investment in building and construction works by the public sector, Construction grew by 3.1% in 2004. The distributive trade sector grew by 3.2%, slightly higher than the 3.1% recorded in the previous year. Transport and Communications activities expanded by 6.5% in 2004 as opposed to 6.1% in 2003. During the same period real estate, renting and business activities grew by 6.9% compared to 6.5% in 2003. Education, including services provided by public and private operators grew by 7.2% in 2004, compared to 5.3% in 2003, while health and social work expanded by 8.8% compared to 7.0% in 2003. Electricity, gas and water supply registered a growth of 4.2% as opposed to 4.6% in 2003. 2.2 Consumption Last years economic performance was once again influenced by internal demand. Total final contribution of consumption to GDP at market price was estimated at 77.3%, compared to 75.1% in 2003. Real final consumption expenditure, increased by 6.3% in 2004, compared to a 4.5% rise in 2003. This expansion in the consumption rate, which is much higher than the GDP growth rate, is clearly inflationary and has a negative direct impact on trade balance and budget deficit. It must be noted that private consumption represented 83.1% of total consumption in 2004, as opposed to 82.8% in 2003. A growth of 6.7% was observed in the consumption of households in 2004, against 4.9% in 2003. This is the highest growth rate recorded since 1989. On the other hand, the share of public sector consumption amounted to 16.9% of total consumption in 2004, showing a slight drop from the 17.2% observed in 2003. Public consumption grew by 4.4% compared to an increase of 2.6% in 2003. In 2004, the continued growth observed in total consumption has been largely sustained by the significant increase in average monthly income earnings of households. The average monthly earnings in large establishments grew by 12.8% between March 2003 and March 2004, to reach Rs. 11, 084. A general upward trend was observed in all industrial groups. The largest increase (+24%) was noted in public administration, following the implementation of the PRB in July 2004. Table 3: Consumption 2001 2002 2003 2004 Aggregate Final Consumption Household Central Government Rs b Rs. b Rs. b 97.0 80.2 16.8 106.6 88.3 18.3 118.3 98.1 20.2 135.1 112.2 22.9 Consumption as a % of GDP at MP % 73.4 75.0 75.1 77.3 Real Agg. Final Consumption growth o Household o Central Government % % % 3.3 3.0 4.7 3.2 3.3 4.1 4.5 4.9 2.6 6.3 6.7 4.4 Average monthly earnings (March) Rs. 8,701 9,159 9,826 11,084 Change in monthly earnings, Nominal % 6.4 5.3 7.3 12.8 2.3 Savings Investment Gross national savings, measured by the difference between Gross National Disposable Income and Total Consumption, increased in nominal terms by 1.8% to reach Rs 40.7 billion in 2004 from Rs 40.0 billion in 2003. Consequently, the saving rate, calculated as the ratio of GNS to GDP at market prices, showed a decline from 25.4% in 2003 to 23.3% in 2004. This decline results from an increase in both public and private expenditure. Table 4: Savings and investment 2001 2002 2003 2004 Gross National Savings (Rs. Billion) 37.6 38.7 40.0 40.7 Nominal Change (%) +2.8 +3.4 +1.8 GNS as a % of GDP at MP (%) 28.4 27.3 25.4 23.3 GDFCF (Rs. billion) Private Sector Public Sector 29.8 20.5 9.3 31.4 21.6 9.8 35.7 21.8 13.8 38.9 25.6 13.4 Real Change in GDFCF (incl aircrafts and vessels) , % +2.7 +1.9 +10.0 +5.5 Real Change in GDFCF (Excl. aircraft and vessels), % -2.6 +6.1 +7.9 +8.2 GDFCF as a % of GDP at MP 22.5 22.0 22.6 22.3 Investment, measured by the Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation (GDFCF), increased to Rs 38.9 billion in 2004 from Rs 35.7 billion in 2003. In real terms, including the purchase of aircrafts and marine vessels, total investment has followed an upward trend of 5.5% in 2004, but lower than the 10.0% growth recorded in 2003. It is interesting to note that net of the purchase of aircrafts and vessels, real investment grew by 8.2% in 2004, representing a better performance than in 2003, when it grew by 7.9%. Investment rate, measured as the ratio of GDFCF to GDP at market prices, has however gone down by 0.3%, to reach 22.3% in 2004 from 22.6% in 2003. Private sector investment continued to make up the bulk of GDFCF in 2004. It accounted for 65.6% of total investment in 2004, compared to 61.2% in 2003. This represented a real growth of 13.2% in 2004, after a negative growth rate of -2.2% in 2003. Higher private sector investment was accounted for by new hotels projects, where investment increased by 55.8% in 2004, as opposed to a negative growth of 21.8% in the preceding year. Moreover, there were additional investments in spinning mills and other projects in the EPZ sector, with an increase of 45.0% in 2004 as opposed to a negative 7.7% in 2003.Inversely, the share of public sector investment fell from 38.8% in 2003 to 34.4% in real terms in 2004. In fact, real public sector investment dropped by 6.6% in 2004, after a high 37.0% real growth in 2003, resulting from a record increase of 133.3% in investment in the construction sector in 2003. The resource gap, given by the difference between savings and investment, was again positive in 2004. However, there has been a significant contraction of 59.7%, from Rs. 4.3 billion in 2003 to reach Rs 1.7 billion in 2004, since investment increased more than savings. The direct consequence of this contraction is a further deterioration of the external account of goods and services. 2.4 Foreign Direct Investment In 2004, FDI inflow fell by 8.6% to reach Rs 1.79 billion against Rs 1.96 billion in 2003. A sharp contraction was observed in the banking sector, where only Rs. 121 million were invested in 2004, as opposed to a high Rs. 1.3 billion in 2003. In contrast, higher investments were recorded in the telecommunications sector in the wake of further liberalisation. Similarly, a total of Rs. 1.08 billion were invested in 2004 in other sectors of the economy, including IT, compared to only Rs. 485 million in 2003. The EPZ sector also attracted more FDI in 2004, with Rs. 248 million, compared to Rs. 77 million in 2003. The same upward trend was observed in the tourism sector, from Rs. 103 million in 2003 to Rs. 121 million in 2004. Table 5: Foreign Investment, Rs million 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Foreign Direct Investment 7,265* 936 979 1966 1,796 EPZ 8 3 41 77 248 Tourism 10 0 100 103 121 Banking 0 600 316 1301 310 Telecoms 7204 0 0 0 38 Others 43 333 522 485 1079 Direct Investment Abroad 333 83 278 1166 909 Net Foreign Direct Investment 6,932 853 701 800 887 * Includes receipts from the sales of Mauritius Telecom shares to France Telecom of Rs 7.2 billion 1 Revised Estimates Concerning outward investment, a high figure of Rs. 1.2 billion was recorded in 2003. However, in 2004, it fell to Rs. 887 million. 2.5   Balance of Payments The overall balance of payments in 2004, measured as a change in foreign reserve assets excluding valuation changes of the Bank of Mauritius, showed a surplus of Rs. 4.2 billion, compared to a surplus of Rs. 6.2 billion in the preceding year. In the first three quarters of 2004, the current account recorded a deficit of Rs. 2.3 billion, compared to a surplus of Rs. 1.8 billion in the corresponding period in 2003, reflecting a deterioration in the visible trade account. The balance of trade worsened from a surplus of Rs. 988 million in the first three quarters of 2003 to a deficit of Rs. 3.0 billion in the corresponding period of 2004. The capital and financial account, inclusive of reserves, recorded a net outflow of Rs. 163 million in the first three quarters of 2004 as opposed to a net outflow of Rs. 1.6 billion in the same period in 2003. At the end of December 2004, Net International Reserves amounted to Rs. 52.8 billion, 8% higher than in December 2003, when it reached Rs. 48.9 billion. Based on the value of the import bill, exclusive of the purchase of aircrafts and vessels, the level of net international reserves represented 39.6 weeks on imports at the end of December 2004. For the corresponding figure in 2003, it represented 36.6 weeks of imports. 2.6 External Trade Table 6: External Trade, Rs Billion 2001 2002 2003 2004 Trade in goods: Exports of goods – excl freeport activities (f.o.b) 47.5 47.3 46.2 48.9 Export of goods – freeport activities 7.3 6.6 6.8 6.8 Imports of goods – excl freeport activities (f.o.b) 53.8 56.0 57.5 67.6 Imports of goods – Freeport activities 5.2 4.2 3.9 3.8 Merchandise trade balance* 4.2 6.3 8.4 15.7 Trade in services Exports of services 35.6 34.4 35.7 39.8 Imports of services 23.6 23.7 25.3 30.0 Balance of trade in services 12.0 10.7 10.4 11.8 Overall trade balance 7.8 4.3 2.0 3.9 * Both Exports and imports are calculated on an f.o.b basis The overall balance of trade in goods and services marked a significant deterioration in 2004. In fact, there was a shift from a trade surplus of Rs. 2 billion in 2003 to a trade deficit of Rs. 3.9 billion in 2004. There was a sharp increase in the deficit in visible trade, which worsened by 87.1% in 2004. Trade in goods was largely biased against imports, therefore resulting in a faster growth in imports, which soared by 14.6% compared to a low 3.3% in 2003. Exports however grew at 7.6% in 2004 as opposed a meagre 0.5% in the preceding year.   On the other hand, trade in services fared well, registering a surplus of Rs. 11.8 billion in 2004, representing 13.5% more than in the previous year. Much of the increase in merchandise imports in 2004 was associated with investment projects, both in the public and private sector. For instance, appreciable increases were noted in the c.i.f value of cement (+57.6%), machinery and transport equipment (+25.9%), crude materials including textile fibres (+46.2%), and telecommunications equipment (+80.3%). Others are linked to an increasing food bill, with surge in the c.i.f value of food items (+14.9%) and of road vehicles (+53.1%). In fact, it is worth noting that in the fourth quarter of 2004, additional projects and events continued to contribute to boost the import bill. There were also new investment projects in EPZ and in energy production and the significant rise in the international price of petroleum products. Finally, the appreciation of the Rand (+13.2%), the Pound Sterling (+9.1%), the Australian Dollar (+9.2%) and the Euro (+7.1%) also contributed to the escalating visible trade deficit. Box: 1 Exports lack dynamics: Although the Mauritian rupee continued to depreciate against major currencies, including the Euro, exports growth remained relatively static over the past few years. A combination of factors resulted in such a situation. Our markets remained relatively undiversified, with a high concentration in Europe. In the past few years, especially since the advent of the Euro in 2000, the Euro Zone has been relatively less dynamic than other countries like China and the US. Our exports to the most dynamic zones have remained however low. Some of the factors responsible for this lack of dynamism include erosion of our long-standing preferences, rising costs of production and the mismatch of skills on the labour market. Trade in services on the other hand, recorded a surplus of Rs. 11.8 billion, 13.5% higher than in the previous year. This is in part, due to higher earnings from the travel industry benefiting from the windfall gains of a strong euro and a strong pound sterling. Exports of services surged by 11.4% in 2004, from Rs. 35.7 billion in 2003 to Rs. 39.8 billion in 2004, whereas there was a 10.6% increase in the imports of services during the same period of time, from Rs. 25.3 billion to Rs. 30.0 billion. 2.7 Inflation Table 7: Inflation Rate, % Calendar Yr Inflation rate (%) Fiscal Yr Inflation rate (%) 2001 5.4 01/02 6.3 2002 6.4 02/03 5.1 2003 3.9 03/04 3.9 2004 4.7 04/05 5.5 The inflation rate, as measured by the percentage change in the yearly average consumer price index reached 4.7% for calendar year 2004 compared to 3.9% in 2003.   This was mainly the result of a combination of domestic and external factors. There were significant increases in the price of subsidised flour (+17%) and rice (+40%). The rise in the price of flour led to an increase in the price of bread by 12%. The price of other food items, such as chicken (+8.8%), fish (+8.5%) , beef (+9.7%), and frozen mutton (+15.2%)   also went up in 2004. In addition, the rise in international oil prices had spill over effects on the domestic economy. There were three successive increases in the price of gasoline and diesel oil. The price of gasoline increased by a total of 27.9% and the price of diesel oil rose by 45.0%, therefore causing subsequent surges in electricity tariffs (+5.1%), bus fares (+13.3%), taxi fares (+15.4%) and air fares (+16.0%). Finally, the prevailing high budget deficit and the sustained level of public investment also contributed to inflationary pressures. 2.8 Employment/ Unemployment Until 2003, labour force statistics were estimated on the basis of the Population census or Labour Force Sample Survey. A new methodology, named the Continuous Multi Purpose Household Survey   (CMPHS) was introduced in March 2004 to estimate the labour force, employment and unemployment rate. It is based on a sample of households that presently covers a total 8,640 households for the whole of 2004. Estimates are conducted on a quarterly basis, on 2,160 households per quarter. In the new CMPHS, the lower age cut-off point to estimate the labour force was brought to 15 years instead of 12 years used previously. A few inconsistencies with regard to the results of the survey have been noted, which probably indicate some weaknesses in the new methodology. The table below gives the estimated figures for the 3 quarters of 2004: Table 8: March 2004 – Estimates June 2004 – Estimates September 2004 – Estimates Labour force Male Female 541,100 348,700 192,400 540,700 347,500 193,200 527,800 349,400 178,400 Employment Male Female 494,100 328,400 165,700 491,200 324,600 166,600 483,500 329,800 153,700 Unemployment Male Female 47,000 20,300 26,700 49,500 22,900 26,600 44,300 19,600 24,700 Unemployment Rate (%) 8.7 9.2 8.4 Contrary to what one would logically expect, the CMPHS estimates indicate a downward trend in the labour force over the three quarters. From March to June, there was a fall of 400 people in the labour force. However, a larger fall was observed, with a contraction of 12,900 jobs from June to September Analysis of Global Economic Growth Analysis of Global Economic Growth World economic growth 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 World Economic Outlook: According to the World Bank, world economic growth accelerated sharply in 2004. In aggregate, the year 2004 has been the healthiest year for developing countries since the last three decades. East Asian countries have come out of the 1997 crisis and are now performing well. The ongoing economic boom in China as well as the surge in activities registered in Japan were major factors in promoting growth in the region. Latin American countries and Sub-Saharan Africa also had a better year. This performance reflects a fortuitous combination of long-term secular trends built on a foundation of better macroeconomic management and an improved domestic investment climate converging with a cyclical recovery of the global economy. There were however some lingering imbalances in the global economy associated with the rising twin deficits in the United States, a delayed recovery in Europe, coupled with high and volatile oil prices, and questions about the path of Chinas economy that might constitute risks to the pace of growth in developing countries over the medium term. Worlds economic growth is likely to slow down in 2005 with a projected rate of 3.2%. Several factors are likely to contribute to the slower growth. It is believed that the investment cycle in the US has peaked, therefore resulting in a slowdown in growth. Furthermore, world demand has far exceeded world supply, resulting in a substantial increase in oil and other commodity prices, therefore reducing demand in other countries. Also, increases in interest rates are likely to slow the investment growth. The US is likely to finance its large budget deficits through tighter fiscal policies and in Europe countries will tighten their budgetary control to remain within the realm of Maastricht limits. Table 1: World economic outlook Real Growth Rate (%) 2002 2003 2004 2005* World 1.7 2.7 4.0 3.2 High Income Countries 1.3 2.1 3.5 2.7 Euro Zone 0.9 0.5 1.8 2.1 USA 1.9 3.0 4.3 3.2 Japan -0.3 2.4 4.3 1.8 Developing Countries 3.4 5.2 6.1 5.4 East Asia and Pacific 6.7 7.9 7.8 7.1 Latin America and Caribbean -0.6 1.6 4.7 3.7 Sub Saharan Africa 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.6 *projected figures Source: Global Economic Prospects 2005, World Bank. 1.2 Mauritian Economic Outlook: Mauritian economic growth in 2004 was positive and stabilised at 4.2%, slightly lower than the 4.4% recorded in 2003. On the one hand, internal demand constituted an important dragging factor, with a 6.3% growth in consumption expenditure compared to 4.5% in 2003. On the other hand, lingering uncertainties linked to the wave of change in the international economic order, uninterrupted trade liberalisation and the gradual loss of our long-standing preferences had a dampening effect on growth. The recent run-up in oil prices was also a constraining factor on economic buoyancy. Business confidence appeared to be quite timid in 2004. However, in spite of an overall deceleration in the rate of investment, which grew by 5.5%, compared to 10.0% in 2003, private sector investment grew by a high 13.2% as opposed to a negative 2.2% in 2003. Moreover, international perception about Mauritius remained positive, and foreign investments in hotels and ICT projects were at a relatively high level. Despite the stable growth rate, several macroeconomic and sectoral performances were relatively unfavourable. Savings rate was lower, registering 23.3% of GDP in 2004 against 25.4% in 2003. Inflation rate was higher in 2004, reaching 5.5%, as opposed to 3.9% in 2003. Overall external trade worsened, from a surplus of Rs. 2 billion in 2003 to a deficit on Rs. 3.9 billion in 2004, as a result of a very large increase in the merchandise trade deficit, from Rs. 8.4 billion to Rs. 15.7 billion. On a sectoral basis, industries were faced with a restricted margin of manoeuvre as a result of increasing international competition from lower-cost producers. Repercussions were felt in the EPZ sector, which registered a negative growth rate of 5% in 2004, following the deceleration of 6% in 2003. The tourism sector, in spite of its apparent dynamism, recorded a growth rate of only 2.6%, compared to 3.0% in 2003. Financial services experienced some inertia, with a low expansion of 1.0%, compared to a high 7.2% in 2004. However, the agricultural sector expanded by 5.1% in 2004, in contrast to the low 1.9% recorded in 2003 and the non-EPZ sector grew by 5.0% in spite of the gradual reduction of tariff protection. 2.0 ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE FOR 2004 2.1 National Accounts: Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by a moderate 4.2% in 2004, compared to 4.4% in 2003. At current basic prices, GDP increased from Rs. 137.9 billion in 2003 to Rs. 151.7 billion. GDP per capita at current basic prices increased by 10.1%, to attain Rs. 122,984 in 2004. In US dollar terms, GDP per capita reached US$ 4,477, 11.7% higher than the previous year, when it reached US$4,010. It is worth noting also that at Purchasing Power Parity, GDP per capita in dollars was estimated at US$ 11,400 in 2003. For the second consecutive year, net income from the rest of the world was negative, with Rs. – 415 million in 2004, compared to Rs. – 833 million in 2003. Table 2: Output at current basic prices: Unit 2001 2002 2003 2004 Real GDP growth rate % +5.6 +1.8 +4.4 +4.2 GDP Rs. Million 117,720 125,260 137,868 151,725 Net income from abroad Rs. Million 393 396 833 415 GNI Rs. Million 118,113 125,656 137,035 151,310 GDP/capita Rs. 98,086 103,479 112,720 122,984 US$ US$ (PPP)* 3,380.9 9,609 3,462.2 10,810 4,010.0 11,400 4,477.4 n/a Exchange Rate, annual av. mid-rate Rs/$ 29.012 29.888 28.11 27.468 * GDP at Purchasing Power Parity provides a more reasonable international GDP comparison among nations.Source: CIA Fact Book 2004 While the EPZ sector continued to register negative growth rates for the third consecutive year, almost all other sectors recorded positive growth rates in 2004.   Non-EPZ grew by +5.0% in 2004, slightly lower than in 2003, when the growth rate was +5.8%. After high growth rates registered in 2002 (+7.6%) and 2003 (+11.1%) mainly due to high investment in building and construction works by the public sector, Construction grew by 3.1% in 2004. The distributive trade sector grew by 3.2%, slightly higher than the 3.1% recorded in the previous year. Transport and Communications activities expanded by 6.5% in 2004 as opposed to 6.1% in 2003. During the same period real estate, renting and business activities grew by 6.9% compared to 6.5% in 2003. Education, including services provided by public and private operators grew by 7.2% in 2004, compared to 5.3% in 2003, while health and social work expanded by 8.8% compared to 7.0% in 2003. Electricity, gas and water supply registered a growth of 4.2% as opposed to 4.6% in 2003. 2.2 Consumption Last years economic performance was once again influenced by internal demand. Total final contribution of consumption to GDP at market price was estimated at 77.3%, compared to 75.1% in 2003. Real final consumption expenditure, increased by 6.3% in 2004, compared to a 4.5% rise in 2003. This expansion in the consumption rate, which is much higher than the GDP growth rate, is clearly inflationary and has a negative direct impact on trade balance and budget deficit. It must be noted that private consumption represented 83.1% of total consumption in 2004, as opposed to 82.8% in 2003. A growth of 6.7% was observed in the consumption of households in 2004, against 4.9% in 2003. This is the highest growth rate recorded since 1989. On the other hand, the share of public sector consumption amounted to 16.9% of total consumption in 2004, showing a slight drop from the 17.2% observed in 2003. Public consumption grew by 4.4% compared to an increase of 2.6% in 2003. In 2004, the continued growth observed in total consumption has been largely sustained by the significant increase in average monthly income earnings of households. The average monthly earnings in large establishments grew by 12.8% between March 2003 and March 2004, to reach Rs. 11, 084. A general upward trend was observed in all industrial groups. The largest increase (+24%) was noted in public administration, following the implementation of the PRB in July 2004. Table 3: Consumption 2001 2002 2003 2004 Aggregate Final Consumption Household Central Government Rs b Rs. b Rs. b 97.0 80.2 16.8 106.6 88.3 18.3 118.3 98.1 20.2 135.1 112.2 22.9 Consumption as a % of GDP at MP % 73.4 75.0 75.1 77.3 Real Agg. Final Consumption growth o Household o Central Government % % % 3.3 3.0 4.7 3.2 3.3 4.1 4.5 4.9 2.6 6.3 6.7 4.4 Average monthly earnings (March) Rs. 8,701 9,159 9,826 11,084 Change in monthly earnings, Nominal % 6.4 5.3 7.3 12.8 2.3 Savings Investment Gross national savings, measured by the difference between Gross National Disposable Income and Total Consumption, increased in nominal terms by 1.8% to reach Rs 40.7 billion in 2004 from Rs 40.0 billion in 2003. Consequently, the saving rate, calculated as the ratio of GNS to GDP at market prices, showed a decline from 25.4% in 2003 to 23.3% in 2004. This decline results from an increase in both public and private expenditure. Table 4: Savings and investment 2001 2002 2003 2004 Gross National Savings (Rs. Billion) 37.6 38.7 40.0 40.7 Nominal Change (%) +2.8 +3.4 +1.8 GNS as a % of GDP at MP (%) 28.4 27.3 25.4 23.3 GDFCF (Rs. billion) Private Sector Public Sector 29.8 20.5 9.3 31.4 21.6 9.8 35.7 21.8 13.8 38.9 25.6 13.4 Real Change in GDFCF (incl aircrafts and vessels) , % +2.7 +1.9 +10.0 +5.5 Real Change in GDFCF (Excl. aircraft and vessels), % -2.6 +6.1 +7.9 +8.2 GDFCF as a % of GDP at MP 22.5 22.0 22.6 22.3 Investment, measured by the Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation (GDFCF), increased to Rs 38.9 billion in 2004 from Rs 35.7 billion in 2003. In real terms, including the purchase of aircrafts and marine vessels, total investment has followed an upward trend of 5.5% in 2004, but lower than the 10.0% growth recorded in 2003. It is interesting to note that net of the purchase of aircrafts and vessels, real investment grew by 8.2% in 2004, representing a better performance than in 2003, when it grew by 7.9%. Investment rate, measured as the ratio of GDFCF to GDP at market prices, has however gone down by 0.3%, to reach 22.3% in 2004 from 22.6% in 2003. Private sector investment continued to make up the bulk of GDFCF in 2004. It accounted for 65.6% of total investment in 2004, compared to 61.2% in 2003. This represented a real growth of 13.2% in 2004, after a negative growth rate of -2.2% in 2003. Higher private sector investment was accounted for by new hotels projects, where investment increased by 55.8% in 2004, as opposed to a negative growth of 21.8% in the preceding year. Moreover, there were additional investments in spinning mills and other projects in the EPZ sector, with an increase of 45.0% in 2004 as opposed to a negative 7.7% in 2003.Inversely, the share of public sector investment fell from 38.8% in 2003 to 34.4% in real terms in 2004. In fact, real public sector investment dropped by 6.6% in 2004, after a high 37.0% real growth in 2003, resulting from a record increase of 133.3% in investment in the construction sector in 2003. The resource gap, given by the difference between savings and investment, was again positive in 2004. However, there has been a significant contraction of 59.7%, from Rs. 4.3 billion in 2003 to reach Rs 1.7 billion in 2004, since investment increased more than savings. The direct consequence of this contraction is a further deterioration of the external account of goods and services. 2.4 Foreign Direct Investment In 2004, FDI inflow fell by 8.6% to reach Rs 1.79 billion against Rs 1.96 billion in 2003. A sharp contraction was observed in the banking sector, where only Rs. 121 million were invested in 2004, as opposed to a high Rs. 1.3 billion in 2003. In contrast, higher investments were recorded in the telecommunications sector in the wake of further liberalisation. Similarly, a total of Rs. 1.08 billion were invested in 2004 in other sectors of the economy, including IT, compared to only Rs. 485 million in 2003. The EPZ sector also attracted more FDI in 2004, with Rs. 248 million, compared to Rs. 77 million in 2003. The same upward trend was observed in the tourism sector, from Rs. 103 million in 2003 to Rs. 121 million in 2004. Table 5: Foreign Investment, Rs million 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Foreign Direct Investment 7,265* 936 979 1966 1,796 EPZ 8 3 41 77 248 Tourism 10 0 100 103 121 Banking 0 600 316 1301 310 Telecoms 7204 0 0 0 38 Others 43 333 522 485 1079 Direct Investment Abroad 333 83 278 1166 909 Net Foreign Direct Investment 6,932 853 701 800 887 * Includes receipts from the sales of Mauritius Telecom shares to France Telecom of Rs 7.2 billion 1 Revised Estimates Concerning outward investment, a high figure of Rs. 1.2 billion was recorded in 2003. However, in 2004, it fell to Rs. 887 million. 2.5   Balance of Payments The overall balance of payments in 2004, measured as a change in foreign reserve assets excluding valuation changes of the Bank of Mauritius, showed a surplus of Rs. 4.2 billion, compared to a surplus of Rs. 6.2 billion in the preceding year. In the first three quarters of 2004, the current account recorded a deficit of Rs. 2.3 billion, compared to a surplus of Rs. 1.8 billion in the corresponding period in 2003, reflecting a deterioration in the visible trade account. The balance of trade worsened from a surplus of Rs. 988 million in the first three quarters of 2003 to a deficit of Rs. 3.0 billion in the corresponding period of 2004. The capital and financial account, inclusive of reserves, recorded a net outflow of Rs. 163 million in the first three quarters of 2004 as opposed to a net outflow of Rs. 1.6 billion in the same period in 2003. At the end of December 2004, Net International Reserves amounted to Rs. 52.8 billion, 8% higher than in December 2003, when it reached Rs. 48.9 billion. Based on the value of the import bill, exclusive of the purchase of aircrafts and vessels, the level of net international reserves represented 39.6 weeks on imports at the end of December 2004. For the corresponding figure in 2003, it represented 36.6 weeks of imports. 2.6 External Trade Table 6: External Trade, Rs Billion 2001 2002 2003 2004 Trade in goods: Exports of goods – excl freeport activities (f.o.b) 47.5 47.3 46.2 48.9 Export of goods – freeport activities 7.3 6.6 6.8 6.8 Imports of goods – excl freeport activities (f.o.b) 53.8 56.0 57.5 67.6 Imports of goods – Freeport activities 5.2 4.2 3.9 3.8 Merchandise trade balance* 4.2 6.3 8.4 15.7 Trade in services Exports of services 35.6 34.4 35.7 39.8 Imports of services 23.6 23.7 25.3 30.0 Balance of trade in services 12.0 10.7 10.4 11.8 Overall trade balance 7.8 4.3 2.0 3.9 * Both Exports and imports are calculated on an f.o.b basis The overall balance of trade in goods and services marked a significant deterioration in 2004. In fact, there was a shift from a trade surplus of Rs. 2 billion in 2003 to a trade deficit of Rs. 3.9 billion in 2004. There was a sharp increase in the deficit in visible trade, which worsened by 87.1% in 2004. Trade in goods was largely biased against imports, therefore resulting in a faster growth in imports, which soared by 14.6% compared to a low 3.3% in 2003. Exports however grew at 7.6% in 2004 as opposed a meagre 0.5% in the preceding year.   On the other hand, trade in services fared well, registering a surplus of Rs. 11.8 billion in 2004, representing 13.5% more than in the previous year. Much of the increase in merchandise imports in 2004 was associated with investment projects, both in the public and private sector. For instance, appreciable increases were noted in the c.i.f value of cement (+57.6%), machinery and transport equipment (+25.9%), crude materials including textile fibres (+46.2%), and telecommunications equipment (+80.3%). Others are linked to an increasing food bill, with surge in the c.i.f value of food items (+14.9%) and of road vehicles (+53.1%). In fact, it is worth noting that in the fourth quarter of 2004, additional projects and events continued to contribute to boost the import bill. There were also new investment projects in EPZ and in energy production and the significant rise in the international price of petroleum products. Finally, the appreciation of the Rand (+13.2%), the Pound Sterling (+9.1%), the Australian Dollar (+9.2%) and the Euro (+7.1%) also contributed to the escalating visible trade deficit. Box: 1 Exports lack dynamics: Although the Mauritian rupee continued to depreciate against major currencies, including the Euro, exports growth remained relatively static over the past few years. A combination of factors resulted in such a situation. Our markets remained relatively undiversified, with a high concentration in Europe. In the past few years, especially since the advent of the Euro in 2000, the Euro Zone has been relatively less dynamic than other countries like China and the US. Our exports to the most dynamic zones have remained however low. Some of the factors responsible for this lack of dynamism include erosion of our long-standing preferences, rising costs of production and the mismatch of skills on the labour market. Trade in services on the other hand, recorded a surplus of Rs. 11.8 billion, 13.5% higher than in the previous year. This is in part, due to higher earnings from the travel industry benefiting from the windfall gains of a strong euro and a strong pound sterling. Exports of services surged by 11.4% in 2004, from Rs. 35.7 billion in 2003 to Rs. 39.8 billion in 2004, whereas there was a 10.6% increase in the imports of services during the same period of time, from Rs. 25.3 billion to Rs. 30.0 billion. 2.7 Inflation Table 7: Inflation Rate, % Calendar Yr Inflation rate (%) Fiscal Yr Inflation rate (%) 2001 5.4 01/02 6.3 2002 6.4 02/03 5.1 2003 3.9 03/04 3.9 2004 4.7 04/05 5.5 The inflation rate, as measured by the percentage change in the yearly average consumer price index reached 4.7% for calendar year 2004 compared to 3.9% in 2003.   This was mainly the result of a combination of domestic and external factors. There were significant increases in the price of subsidised flour (+17%) and rice (+40%). The rise in the price of flour led to an increase in the price of bread by 12%. The price of other food items, such as chicken (+8.8%), fish (+8.5%) , beef (+9.7%), and frozen mutton (+15.2%)   also went up in 2004. In addition, the rise in international oil prices had spill over effects on the domestic economy. There were three successive increases in the price of gasoline and diesel oil. The price of gasoline increased by a total of 27.9% and the price of diesel oil rose by 45.0%, therefore causing subsequent surges in electricity tariffs (+5.1%), bus fares (+13.3%), taxi fares (+15.4%) and air fares (+16.0%). Finally, the prevailing high budget deficit and the sustained level of public investment also contributed to inflationary pressures. 2.8 Employment/ Unemployment Until 2003, labour force statistics were estimated on the basis of the Population census or Labour Force Sample Survey. A new methodology, named the Continuous Multi Purpose Household Survey   (CMPHS) was introduced in March 2004 to estimate the labour force, employment and unemployment rate. It is based on a sample of households that presently covers a total 8,640 households for the whole of 2004. Estimates are conducted on a quarterly basis, on 2,160 households per quarter. In the new CMPHS, the lower age cut-off point to estimate the labour force was brought to 15 years instead of 12 years used previously. A few inconsistencies with regard to the results of the survey have been noted, which probably indicate some weaknesses in the new methodology. The table below gives the estimated figures for the 3 quarters of 2004: Table 8: March 2004 – Estimates June 2004 – Estimates September 2004 – Estimates Labour force Male Female 541,100 348,700 192,400 540,700 347,500 193,200 527,800 349,400 178,400 Employment Male Female 494,100 328,400 165,700 491,200 324,600 166,600 483,500 329,800 153,700 Unemployment Male Female 47,000 20,300 26,700 49,500 22,900 26,600 44,300 19,600 24,700 Unemployment Rate (%) 8.7 9.2 8.4 Contrary to what one would logically expect, the CMPHS estimates indicate a downward trend in the labour force over the three quarters. From March to June, there was a fall of 400 people in the labour force. However, a larger fall was observed, with a contraction of 12,900 jobs from June to September

The Effect of Alcoholism on the Family

Alcoholism has been a problem America has faced for thousands of years. There are alcoholics in every generation and they can be of any age, social or ethnic group, and socio-economic status. Numerous studies unexpectedly show that alcoholism typically affects highly educated and highly motivated individuals (Silverstein, 1990 cited in Parsons, 2003).Presently, in a national survey conducted in 2001 by the U. S. Department of Health and Human Services (2001 National Household Survey on Drug Abuse), nearly half of Americans (48.  3 percent or roughly 109 million) at least 12 years of age reported that they were current alcohol drinkers, while 5. 7 percent or 12. 9 million reported that they engage in heavy drinking.Most of the heavy drinkers were young adults aged 18 to 25 years old (13. 6 percent of the population within this age range), and heavy alcohol use rates decreased with increasing age as only 5. 4 percent of the middle-aged population admitted that they engage in heavy dr inking. These heavy drinkers have caused many problems not only for themselves but for the family as well.Hence, alcoholism has been recognized as a family disease. An alcoholic in the family can have lasting detrimental effects to the family. In another survey conducted by the U. S Department of Health and Human Services together with Substance Abuse & Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA), â€Å"76 million American adults have been exposed to alcoholism in the family. † Hence, it’s not surprising that family problems have been attributed mostly to alcoholism than to any other single cause (Parsons, 2003). McAneny (1997 cited in Walters, 2002) adds that in every three families, one family has alcohol-related problems.The significant effect of the presence of alcoholic in the family has caught the attention of many scholars and institutions. They contributed greatly in identifying the specific effects of alcoholism on the individual and on the family. This pap er aims to describe the biological and behavioral effects of alcoholism on the family of alcoholics. Specifically, it aims to discuss the following: (1) The parental behavior of alcoholics (2) Spousal and child violence of alcoholics (3) The biological effects on the child of alcoholics (COAs)(4) The psychological effects of alcoholism on the family members Considering the findings of numerous studies, the author states that alcoholism has biological effects on children of alcoholics, contributes to spousal and child violence, and has a psychological effect on the family members. Behavioral Problems of Alcoholics Parental Behavior of Alcoholics Alcoholic parents cannot provide their children the necessary proper bonding characterized by consistent love and nurturing. The alcoholic parent is mostly absent. When he or she is present, he or she exhibits very inconsistent behavior.For instance, he or she may be harsh and abusive at one time, then remorseful and kind later (McGaha, 1995) . This observation is further supported by a study conducted by Lang (1999) involving alcoholic parents and their deviant children. Results of his experiment establish the causal effect of alcohol on parenting behavior. Intoxicated parents were less likely to keep their attention focused on their child and respond appropriately. They were also inclined to fail to attend or misperceive their children’s problem behaviors, placing the parents in a poor position to correct the problem behavior.Decrease in consistency of parenting behavior was also found to be a consequence of drinking. Due to changes in parental perception induced by alcohol intoxication, Lang also concluded that these changes could cause the disciplinary patterns of the parents to vary as a result of alcohol intoxication. Being intoxicated also caused the interaction style of parents to be disorganized and inconsistent. They engaged in irrelevant talk and failed to maintain task-oriented work behaviors as they w ere less congenial, i. e., laughed and played less, and inconsistent, i. e. , worked less, talked more. Based on these results, Lang concluded that alcohol intoxication lessens parental effectiveness. Alcoholic Violence on Spouses Kantor and Straus (1990) conducted a review of 15 empirical studies and discovered a range from 6 to 85% alcohol involvement in spouse abuse. One of the studies they reviewed is Labell’s (1979) study the findings of which showed that nearly three-fourths or 72 percent of 512 physically abused women reported that their husbands have alcohol problems.In an analysis of the survey data that they gathered, results revealed that a direct linear relationship exists between the wife battering rates and typical drinking patterns. The rate of drinking of binge and heavy drinkers was nearly one half or 48 percent at the time of physical abuse incident (cited in Hutchison, 1999). Alcoholism and Child Abuse Research estimates reveal that more than 1 million chil dren in the US are involved in some form of abuse or neglect every year (Widom, 1993 cited in Widom, 2001).Child abuse has been associated with alcohol use and abuse which has been considered either as a consequence or a causative factor. For instance, alcohol abuse of parents may contribute to an abusive treatment towards their child (Widom, 2001). Some studies support this conclusion, one of which is the study of Ammerman and his associates (1999) which revealed a relationship between parents with history of alcohol and other drug abuse (AOD) and a higher potential to abusive treatment of children in comparison to parents without history of AOD (cited in Widom, 2001).Another study that supports the link of alcoholism and child abuse state that mothers who have histories of alcohol problems are â€Å"more likely to use harsh punishment on their children compared with women without such histories† (Miller et al. , 1997 cited in Widom, 2001). Biological Effects on the Child of Alcoholics Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorders When mothers consume alcohol during their pregnancy, it causes the child in their womb to have birth defects, clinically known as a fetal alcohol spectrum disorder (FASD).The most clinically recognized form of FASD is fetal alcohol syndrome (FAS), which is usually characterized by the following: (1) a pattern of minor facial irregularity; (2) prenatal and postnatal growth defects; and (3) abnormalities in the functional or structural central nervous system (CNS). These birth defects cause neurocognitive impairment resulting in behavioral disturbances and learning difficulties. Another clinically recognizable form of FASD is alcohol related neurodevelopmental disorder which is similar to FAS but the defects in the facial feature are absent (Wattendorf, 2005).A study conducted by Sampson et al. (1997) and Stratton et al. (1996) reported that 1 percent of the US population may be affected by FASD (cited in Wattendorf, 2005). Mothers who cons ume high levels of alcohol during pregnancy are likely to give birth to children who have FASD. In fact, animal studies show that during pregnancy, a single episode of alcohol consumption (two alcoholic beverages where one drink is equal to 12 ounces of beer, 5 ounces of wine, or 1. 5 ounces of â€Å"hard† liquor), may bring about the loss of fetal brain cells (Olney, 2004 cited in Wattendorf, 2005).However, even when the deleterious effects of alcohol on the baby has become a widespread knowledge, a study conducted by the National Task Force on Fetal alcohol Syndrome and Fetal alcohol Effect participated by 18 to 24 years old women showed that 10 percent of the mothers consumed alcohol while pregnant, of which 2 percent participated in binge drinking, i. e. , consuming five or more drinks on one occasion (Wattendorf, 2005). As alcohol consumption directly results in neuronal damage and fetal brain cell due to the toxin from alcohol, FASD is considered nonhereditary.No prenat al period has been exempted from the harmful effects of alcohol. Alcohol exposure in any period of pregnancy may result in CNS damage, even before doing a pregnancy test. Thus, women should not drink any beverage with alcohol content from the time of conception to birth (Wattendorf, 2005) Genetic Factors of Alcoholism Early family studies revealed that people with a family history of alcohol misuse have three to four times higher chance of personally misusing alcohol than those who have no family history of alcohol misuse (Cotton, 1979, cited in Walters, 2002).Further studies on parent-to-offspring transmission of alcoholism were conducted by observing male children of alcoholics who were adopted-away or placed in adoptive homes since birth (Goodwim et al. 1973; Schuckit et al. 1972a, b; all cited in Wilson, 1991). Findings of the study conducted by Goodwin and associates (1973) showed that 33 percent of adopted-away sons of alcoholic fathers became alcoholics as well, as opposed to 7 percent incidence of alcoholism on adopted-away sons of nonalcoholic fathers, representing a 26 percent increase in incidence of alcoholism (Winston, 1991).While these results may be significant in determining the probability of future alcoholism for the sons of alcoholics, discerning exactly who among them will turn out to be alcoholic is difficult to answer. After all, more than half of the sons of alcoholics studied (two-thirds) did not become alcoholics (Goodwin et al. , 1973 cited in Winston, 1991).Thus, providing intervention or prevention strategies for the sons of alcoholics would be a waste of effort two-thirds of the time, and would overlook a more important matter: rehabilitating alcoholic sons of nonalcoholics (Winston, 1991). Psychological Effects of Alcoholism on the Family Psychological Effects on Children of Alcoholics (COAs) It has been widely considered that parents with alcohol problems place their children at a high risk of having several developmental and beh avioral problems, including the development of substance abuse problems of their own (Conners, 2004).Numerous studies show that COAs are at an elevated risk of developing externalizing and behavior problems including conduct disorder, oppositional disorder, delinquency, and attention deficit disorders (Earls, Reich, Jung, & Cloninger, 1988; Kuperman, Schlosser, Lidral, & Reich, 1999; Merikangas & Avenevoli, 2000; Reich, Earls, Frankel, & Shayka, 1993, Sher, 1991; all cited in Ohennessian, 2004). Other studies focused on internalizing problems that develop in COAs such as depression and anxiety (Bennett, Wolin, & Reiss, 1988; Chassin, Pitts, DeLucia, & Todd, 1999; Reich et al., 1993; all cited in Ohannessian, 2004). There is also a higher possibility that COAs would experience substance abuse problems as to non-COAs (Chassin et al. , 1999; Goodwin, 1988; Russell, Cooper, & Frone, 1990; all cited in Ohannessian, 2004). In addition, these children also have negative psychological sympt oms such as low self-esteem, loneliness, guilt, feelings of helplessness, fears of abandonment, and chronic depression (Berger, 1993 cited in Parsons, 2003). They also often experience high levels of tension and stress resulting in frequent nightmares, bed wetting, and crying.They may also feel that they are to blame for the problems of the alcoholic, thinking that they are the cause of the problem. Adult children of alcoholics (ACOAs) may exhibit depressive symptoms such as obsessive perfectionism, hoarding, or being excessively self-conscious (Parsons, 2003). The school performance of COAs may also be affected as stressful home environment prevents them from studying. In school, they may also develop the inability to express themselves and the difficulty in relating with their teachers and classmates.A survey conducted by the US government show that there are 30 percent of women who were not able to finish high school are daughters of alcoholics while only 20 percent of sons of al coholics went to college. ACOAs also experience problems of depression, aggression, or impulsive behavior. As parents, they often tend to become failures and make poor career choices due to elevated feelings of worthlessness and failure (Berger, 1993 cited in Parsons, 2003). Although a portion of COAs develop psychological problems later in life, many of them do not manifest high levels of emotional and behavioral problems and become alcoholics themselves.The cause of variability may be attributed to individual differences and factors other than parental alcoholism that independently contribute to child outcomes (Loukas et al. , 2001). Psychological Effects on Spouses of Alcoholics Spouses of Alcoholics may develop negative emotions such as hatred, self-pity, and avoidance of social contacts. They may also suffer from exhaustion and from physical or mental illness as the spouse fulfills the responsibilities of two parents (Berger, 1993 cited in Parsons, 2003).The nonalcoholic spouse s’ focus on the alcoholic spouse may cause them to neglect their children (McGaha, 1995; Berger, 1993 cited in Parsons, 2003). The marital conflict caused by alcoholism often leads to divorce (Parsons, 2003; McGaha, 1995). Family Problems of in an Alcoholic Family System The home environment of an alcoholic family system is characterized by bewildering emotional conflicts such as inconsistent and antagonistic behavior (Morehouse, 1994 cited in McGaha, 1995). As alcoholism is considered as one of the major instigators of divorce, alcoholic families are often broken.However, studies also show that spouse and children of alcoholics contribute to the drinker’s irresponsible habit and make it worse by tolerating it to keep the family together (Parsons, 2003). Denial of the problem instigates multiple emotional problems in the family members. The family members also often become codependent i. e. , unconsciously addicted to the abnormal behavior of another (Wekesser, 1994 ci ted in Parsons, 2003). The codependent family members of alcoholics try to do everything they can to hide the problem, causing the spouse and children to â€Å"avoid making friends and bringing other people home† (Parsons, 2003).The codependent family members often let go of their own needs or desires to attempt to control or cure the drinker (Parsons, 2003). Summary and Conclusion The studies cited in this paper suggest that alcoholism contributes to numerous problems in the family. Alcoholic parents tend to become ineffective as parents due to parental inconsistencies such as inconsistency in discipline caused by misperception of a child’s behavior problem. Alcoholics were also found to inflict physical abuse on family members their spouse and children especially when they have consumed high levels of alcohol.Alcoholism has also biological effects on the child of alcoholics (COAs). Fetal alcohol syndrome (FAS) occurs when mothers consume alcohol during pregnancy. FAS is characterized by physical deformities and cognitive impairment, resulting in learning disabilities. The role of genes in alcoholism was also considered, as findings of a study conducted on adopted-away sons of alcoholics reveal that 30 percent of the participants turned out to be alcoholics like their parents. Finally, alcoholism has a psychological impact on the family.Family members of alcoholics experience a bewildering mixture of emotional conflict at home and become codependent on the alcoholic’s behavior. Children of Alcoholics (COAs) and spouses of alcoholics have a higher risk of having behavior, development, and social problems. References Conners, N. A. (2004). Children of mothers with serious substance abuse problems: an accumulation of risks. American Journal of Drug and Alcohol Abuse, 30(1), 85-100. Hutchison, I. W. (1999). Alcohol, fear, and woman abuse. Sex Roles, 40, 893-920. Lang, A. R. (1999).Effects of alcohol intoxication on parenting behavior in inter actions with child confederates exhibiting normal or deviant behaviors. Journal of Abnormal Child Psychology, 27(3), 177-189. Loukas, A. et al. (2001). Parental alcoholism and co-occurring antisocial behavior: prospective relationships to externalizing behavior problems in their young sons. Journal of Abnormal Child Psychology, 29(2), 91-106. McGaha, J. E. (1995). Family violence, abuse, and related family issues of incarcerated delinquents with alcoholic parents compared to those with nonalcoholic parents.Adolescence, 30(118), 473-482. Ohannessian, C. M. (2004). The relationship between parental alcoholism and adolescent psychopathology: a systematic examination of parental comorbid psychopathology. Journal of Abnormal Child Psychology, 32(5), 519-533 Parsons, T. (December 14, 2003). Alcoholism and its effect on the family. AllPsych Journal. Retrieved November 7, 2007 from http://allpsych. com/journal/alcoholism. html Samhsa. gov (2002). Statistics. Alcohol and Drug Information. Re trieved November 7, 2007 from http://ncadistore. samhsa.gov/catalog/facts. aspx? topic=3 Walters, G. D. (2002). The heritability of alcohol abuse and dependence: a meta-analysis of behavior genetic research. American Journal of Drug and Alcohol Abuse, 28(3), 557- 584. Widom, C. S. (2001). Alcohol abuse as a risk factor for and consequence of child abuse. Alcohol Research and Health. 25(1), 52-57. Wilson, J. R. (1991). Genetics of alcoholism. Alcohol Health and Research World, Winter, 1991. Retrieved November 7, 2007 from http://findarticles. com/p/articles/mi_m0847/is_n1_v15/ai_12148263/print

Continuum of Care: Home Health Care

This paper will explain the components of the Home Health Care delivery system of continuum. The reader will be able to understand some of the services provided by the home health care system and how they fit into the continuum of care. It will give details on how the entity does or does not contribute to the overall management of healthcare resources. In conclusion, it will examine the future trends of health care and discuss how the home health services will be impacted or have a need to change to meet future trends.The continuum of home health care pertains to the diversity of health care services rendered for the existence of a person’s life. Home health care organizations offer nursing services or therapy to persons in their homes that do not require hospital confinement but are in need of specialized care. There will be services provided by experienced and qualified nurses, knowledgeable pharmacists, encouraging therapist, concerned social workers, competent nutritionist and compassionate aides to assist wherever needed.Some home health agencies are eligible to offer on-site home infusion pharmacy; an intravenous administration of medication to patients in their own homes (UVA, 2008). Continuum of care also offers nutritional products, prescribed medication and any type of infusion equipment needed at home by the patient. The Federal Law states, home health patients has the freedom to choose the agency that will provide the best home care service that fits their needs. Section 1802 of The Social Security Act â€Å"seeks to ensure that free choice is guaranteed to all Medicare patients†.The law states: ‘Any individual entitled to insurance benefits under this title [i. e. , Medicare] may obtain health services from any institution, agency or any person qualified to participate under this title if such person, agency or institutional undertakes to provide him/her such services(UVA,2008). This statement grants patients the ability and rig ht to choose who they want to provide them services after a hospital stay. All staff members, including nurses go through a thorough hiring process and are monitored and assessed on a regular basis to ensure updated comprehension and proficiency.Each staff member should display a high echelon of outstanding care due to their impressionable experience levels and infinite amount of training. The majority of them will have advanced credentials in specialty areas. The nurses and other staff members emphasize family and patient education to increase the possibility of independence. The Clinical Staff Executive Committee provides clinical supervision and ensures the staff works hard to keep up the excellent reputation and provide patients superb quality of care.This is accomplished by supporting and encouraging staff to engage in continuing education and ongoing in – service programs. Continuum of care staff uses national therapy standards and guidelines to help the patient manage specific diseases. The program should be able to instruct patients and their caregivers how to self manage their diseases. The goal of the Continuum of care is to avoid unnecessary hospitalization. Most agencies are focused on Heart Failure, Diabetes, Incontinence, COPD, rehabilitation, psychiatric nursing, wound care and after surgery care.Continuum of care therapy program is designed to improve self care, problems with mobility, communication, pain and even swallowing management. Eligibility and coverage of continuum home health care services is based upon who is paying for the services; Managed Care, self pay Medicare or Medicaid. On average, the patient has to be homebound where he or she infrequently leaves home for no more than health reasons and when done it requires a lot of effort and assistance from someone. The patient must not require around the clock care and it must be ordered by a physician.Most importantly, care must be medically required The entity contributes to va rious specialty areas in healthcare. Continuum home health care has been in existence for many years but certainly not by that name. Decades ago, physicians made house calls out of necessity and caregivers consisted of family members and friends. More options are given today based on the needs on the individual. There have been changes in health care in regards to reduced hospital stays and elderly populations which are both reasons for home health, hospice and skilled nursing facilities a part of today’s growing health outlook.All of these approaches to health care serve a special yet significant role in the development of contemporary health care. Continuum of home health includes many services for various types of patients. Included but not limited to any age of disabled people, elderly, the chronically ill and persons recuperating from severe illnesses. Continuum of home health care could be in conjunction with home-meal delivery. This service provides the qualifying pati ent with two meals per day. These services will guarantee the patient has a balanced lunch and inner to keep them nourished. Most critically ill patients and elderly patients go on with their day with out eating breakfast or any other meal, basically because they can’t remember when they last ate a meal or don’t have the energy fix something to est. There are outreach laboratories that provide home bound patients with phlebotomy services for blood and other specimen collections. This service is convenient to people that have transportation issues or have family and friends unavailable to provide for their needs.Continuum of home health care can be provided by various kinds of agencies, organizations, private individuals. A great deal of research should be done before choosing a service. The most important thing to remember is to decide on what best fits you and your families needs. Most services have a 24 hour and 7day week availability. They assume responsibility for their personnel and liability for all care. According to the National Association for home Health; Approximately 7. 6 million peoples in the United States need some type of home health.As of January, 2007, there are over 20,000 home health care providers. Roughly two-thirds of home health recipients are over 65 years old and almost two-thirds are women. Approximately 38. 3 billion dollars were estimated to have been spent on home health care in 2003. Medicare is the leading single payer in home health services. The expenditure for Medicare services in 200 was estimated at 31 percent. The Continuum of care home health services has proven to be very rewarding and useful in the past years (NAHC, 2008). No one knows what the future holds but, the needs of people change on a daily basis.More people’s bodies are riddled with illness and diseases and all manner of sickness. Insurances are dictating what can and can not be allowed when utilizing your services. With health care issues on the rise, the need for recovery will grow more rapidly. Hospital stay is drastically reducing which is opening the door for more home health agencies. More diseases and drug therapy could be administered via continuum home health care. There are a limited amount of dialysis patients taught along with family members to administer treatment in the comfort of their homes.Dialysis is a very uncomfortable and unpleasant treatment to experience and any new or improved idea to make the patients more comfortable would be welcomed. Chemotherapy for cancer patients is another treatment to be researched for a better procedure to ensure more comfort. Medicine is changing rapidly everyday and procedures are becoming less complicated and less time consuming. The Continuum of Home Health will have the opportunity to broaden their areas of health care to include a larger range of ill patients.Most of all, with proper training, it could help the economy by making more jobs available in the indus try. It takes a special person to work in the home health care industry. You have to love people, helping people and most of all care about what you do. Every case and how you treat it is a reflection on you. First impressions are lasting and remember the â€Å"Golden Rule† of life. The patients are sick and want to be treated with respect and care. You never know when or if you or a family member will ever need care.

Hammer-Headed Bat Facts (Big-Lipped Bat)

The hammer-headed bat is a real animal, and its scientific name (Hypsignathus monstrosus) references its monstrous appearance. Indeed, websites and social media describe the hammer-headed bats appearance as the spitting image of a devil and even claim that its a cryptid known as the Jersey Devil. Despite its fearsome attributes, however, this bat is a mild-mannered fruit-eater. Nevertheless, you shouldnt get too close, because its one of three species of African fruit bat believed to carry the Ebola virus. Fast Facts: Hammer-Headed Bat Scientific Name: Hypsignathus monstrosusCommon Names: Hammer-headed bat, hammerhead bat, big-lipped batBasic Animal Group: MammalSize: Wingspan 27.0-38.2  inches; Body 7.7-11.2  inchesWeight: 7.7-15.9 ouncesLifespan: 30 yearsDiet: HerbivoreHabitat: Equatorial AfricaPopulation: UnknownConservation Status: Least Concern Description The hammer-headed bat is a type of megabat and the largest bat native to Africa. Both males and females are grayish brown, with brown ears and flight membranes, and tufts of white fur at the base of the ears. An adult bat ranges from 7.7 to 11.2 in body length, with a wingspan of 27.0 to 38.2  in. Males range in weight from 8.0 to 15.9  oz, while females weigh 7.7 to 13.3  oz. Male hammer-headed bats are larger than females and look so different from their mates that it would be easy to think they belonged to a different species. Only the males have large, elongated heads. Female hammer-headed bats have the fox-faced appearance common to most fruit bats. This hammer-headed bat looks unnaturally large because it is closer to the camera than its handler. Per Se, Flickr The hammer-headed bat is sometimes confused with Wahlbergs epauletted fruit bat (Epomophorus wahlbergi), which belongs to the same family but is smaller. Wahlbergs epauletted fruit bat (Epomophorus wahlbergi) also has a hammer-head face. Michele DAmico supersky77 / Getty Images Habitat and Distribution Hammer-headed bats occur across equatorial Africa at elevations below 1800 m (5900 ft). They favor humid habitats, including rivers, swamps, mangroves, and palm forests. Hammer-headed bat distribution map. Chermundy Diet Hammer-headed bats are frugivores, which means their diet consists entirely of fruit. While figs are their favored food, they also eat bananas, mangoes, and guavas. The bat has a longer intestine than that of an insectivorous species, allowing it to absorb more protein from its food. There is a sole report of a bat eating a chicken, but no carnivorous activity has been substantiated. The bats are preyed upon by humans and birds of prey. They are also susceptible to severe parasite infestations. Hammer-headed bats are prone to infection by mites and Hepatocystis carpenteri, a protozoan that affects the liver. The species is a suspected reservoir for the Ebola virus, but as of 2017, only antibodies against the virus (not the virus itself) have been found in the animals. Whether or not the bats can transmit Ebola infection to humans is unknown. Behavior During the day, the bats roost in trees, relying on their coloration to camouflage them from predators. They pick and eat fruit at night. One reason large bats such as the hammer-headed bat are nocturnal is because their bodies generate considerable heat when they are flying. Being active at night helps keep the animals from overheating. Reproduction and Offspring Breeding takes place during dry seasons for some populations and at any time of the year for others. Most members of this bat species reproduce via lek mating. In this type of mating, males gather in groups of 25 to 130 individuals to perform a mating ritual consisting of wing flapping and loud honking. Females fly through the group to evaluate potential mates. When a females selection is made, she lands beside a male and mating occurs. In some hammer-headed bat populations, males perform their display to attract females, but do not form groups. Females usually give birth to one offspring. The time required for gestation and weaning is unclear, but females are known to mature more quickly than males. Females reach sexual maturity at 6 months of age. It takes males a full year to develop their hammer-head faces and about 18 months before they reach maturity. The bat has a life expectancy of thirty years in the wild. Conservation Status The conservation status of the hammer-headed bat was last evaluated in 2016. The bat is categorized as least concern. Although the animal is hunted as bush meat, it occupies a large geographic range and the overall population has not experienced a rapid decline. Sources Bradbury, J. W. Lek Mating Behavior in the Hammer-headed Bat. Zeitschrift fà ¼r Tierpsychologie 45 (3): 225–255, 1977. doi:10.1111/j.1439-0310.1977.tb02120.xDeusen, M. van, H. Carnivorous Habits of Hypsignathus monstrosus. J. Mammal. 49 (2): 335–336, 1968. doi:10.2307/1378006Langevin, P. and R. Barclay. Hypsignathus monstrosus. Mammalian Species 357: 1–4, 1990. doi:10.2307/3504110Nowak, M., R.  Walkers Bats of the World. Johns Hopkins University Press. pp.  63–64, 1994.Tanshi, I. Hypsignathus monstrosus. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. 2016: e.T10734A115098825. doi:10.2305/IUCN.UK.2016-3.RLTS.T10734A21999919.en