Nursing Research

?Presentation Nursing research is a precise procedure by which medical attendants may used to affirm or refine existing information and to investigate new thoughts regarding issues identified with nursing practice (Borbasi, Jackson, and Langford, 2008). It falls to a great extent into two regions, in particular: Qualitative examination and Quantitative exploration whereby subjective examination depends on the model of phenomenology, grounded hypothesis, and ethnography and inspects the experience of those accepting or conveying nursing care. The exploration strategies most ordinarily utilized in subjective examination are interviews, contextual investigations, and ethnography. Then again, quantitative exploration is situated in the worldview of sensible positivism and is engaged upon results for customers that are quantifiable, by and large utilizing insights accumulated from an overview poll strategy for research (Parahoo, 1997). The target of this nursing research task is to recognize the distinguished three bits of nursing research with a typical issue that is applicable to my ebb and flow clinical experience. The five periods of the examination procedure will be laid out and talked about the discoveries of the scientists by giving models from each investigation. For motivations behind this task, the examination point which I need to look at is poor cleanliness and inability to follow disease control works on, adding to the spread of nosocomial contaminations particularly those brought about by anti-toxin safe strain of microscopic organisms, for example, methicillin-safe Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in a clinical setting. The said subject was picked in light of the fact that it has been seen during my clinical experience, that more often than not specialists, attendants, and other wellbeing experts doesn't hold fast to the execution of existing rules appropriate to disease counteraction and control rehearses possibly because of unnecessary outstanding burden and quick turnover time period however in any case, that isn't a reason. Further, the development of anti-toxin obstruction is principally because of over the top and frequently pointless utilization of anti-infection agents to patients (Gould, 2008). Hazard factor for the spread of safe microscopic organisms in medical clinics can be summed up as congestion and slips by in cleanliness or poor contamination control rehearses (Gopal Rao, 1998). The three distinguished nursing research articles identifies with my momentum clinical experience wherein a typical issue was resolved explicitly counting the components for the spread of human services related contaminations (HCAIs, for example, MRSA and giving a few solutions for forestall and control the transmission of such diseases. Issues distinguished according to my clinical experience. In view of past investigations it was found out that the method of transmission of miniaturized scale - life forms in a human services setting incorporate immediate and backhanded contact, inward breath or bead, waterborne or body liquid course, foodborne, and sexual movement (Gould, 2008). The issues identified with my clinical experience are poor cleanliness and non-adherence to disease control rules by nursing staff and other wellbeing experts. Henceforth, apparently disease control was not appropriately overseen in a social insurance setting. As far as I can tell it was seen that the greater part of the specialists and medical caretakers don't wear expendable gloves and dispensable cover during their visit to various patients particularly for those patients who are in separation room beset with various types of illness. This perception can be shown when a patient was conceded in the ward and held up in a disengagement room on the grounds that the patient is MRSA positive. The specialist go into the patient’s space to do some clinical evaluation and more often than not specialist will in general neglect to wear defensive apparatus before led clinical appraisals, notwithstanding the notification or sign posted before the patient’s room being a disengaged territory. After leading the clinical appraisal on a patient who is MRSA positive, the specialist didn't wash his hands rather proceeded with his activity by directing clinical determine the status of different patients who are not in seclusion territory. What's more, nurture likewise will in general neglect to follow contamination control ractices. They neglected to comprehend the chain of disease control, for instance an E. coli, which is considered as a contamination specialist found in the internal organ of human structure most of the ordinary intestinal vegetation. Its port of exit is by means of excrement. The medical attendant expelled the debased cloth from the bed. The E. coli def iled the hands of the medical attendant who at that point gave care to another patient without hand washing. The subsequent patient has a foley catheter. The medical attendant controlled the catheter tubing, the E. oli in the nurse’s hands debased the catheter tubing and climbing to the patient’s urinary tract and afterward into the bladder. The vulnerable host, who is the second patient with the foley catheter is an old and had a ceaseless disease requiring total bed rest. The foley catheter tainted by the E. coli life form gave an immediate course into the urinary bladder causing the transmission of the contamination starting with one patient then onto the next. The most widely recognized method of transmission of disease is by direct contact, regularly on the hands of wellbeing laborers. This is the way that most HCAIs are spread and clarifies why hand washing is stressed as the most significant method of breaking the chain of disease (Gould, 2008). Additionally, medical caretakers were watched wandering around in the ward hallway wearing the expendable gloves and dispensable outfits in the wake of giving nursing care to patients who are in seclusion room. These activations test that attendants ought to have proceeding with training on the usage of contamination control practices to maintain a strategic distance from cross-contamination and transmission of infectious illnesses among patients. The pith of general wellbeing is taking reasonable measures to forestall issues later on. Great disease control in essential consideration can possibly forestall grave ramifications for patients. Medical caretakers in essential consideration should assume a urgent job in guaranteeing neatness, disease control practices and cling to rules in this significant region (Gould, 2008). Five periods of the exploration procedure The nursing research process contains an efficient arrangement of stages or steps that layout the key purposes of examination study. Examination article has both subjective and quantitative exploration strategy to create and answer the issues appropriate to the particular theme (Borbasi, et al. , 2008). The main period of nursing research is to consider the examination by distinguishing the issue or issue to be contemplated applicable to the enthusiasm of the analyst that will incorporate the objective of the investigation, survey of writing, advancement of hypothetical structure, and the definition of exploration speculation (Borbasi, et al. , 2008). Writing survey serves to place the current investigation into the setting of what is now thought about the marvel (Parahoo, 1997). The three recognized nursing research were considered because of the accompanying issues: In article one entitled Plastic cover wear during direct patient consideration, the scientists expressed the issue as conflicting practice in cover use by attendants in social insurance setting (Candlin and Stark, 2005). In this investigation an extension of the general subjects and centralization of the primary report is given and the peruser can settle on decision about the importance of the article for the reason. The distinguished issue in article two entitled controlling the danger of MRSA contamination: screening and detaching patients expressed that there is a need to limit the spread of anti-toxin safe disease through screening and separating patients (Bissett, 2005). For article three, entitled bed inhabitance, turnover stretch and MRSA rates in Northern Ireland, the specialists recognized the issue as the expanding pace of MRSA contamination in the social insurance setting. Relative thereto, the point of the investigation is to find out the connection between bed rate inhabitance and MRSA understanding scene rates (Cunningham, kernohan and Rush, 2006). In the audit of writing, the scientists of the three articles investigations the written works from various sources, for example, Cinahl, Medline and Pubmed (Bissett, 2005), to help in the improvement of hypothetical structure to clarify or anticipate study results (Borbasi, et al. , 2008). In article three the analysts create hypothetical system to clarify their discoveries by utilizing the gathered information from various sources. The second period of nursing research is to structure the investigation whereby the technique for the direct of examination was recognized (Borbasi, et al. , 2008). It incorporates the procedure of information assortment, whereby article three is a case of quantitative strategy for research wherein the analysts accumulated the required information from yearly reports and emergency clinic measurements. In article one, the specialists gathered the data and information required in their examination from 15 diary articles which are pertinent to their theme that add to the validity of the result of the investigation and this is a portrayal of a subjective technique for research as the scientists investigations past contextual analyses applicable to their point (Candlin and Stark, 2005). Further, article two was recognized as a quantitative report and obviously delineated the exploration question to be replied (Bissett, 2005). The lead of the examination is the third period of nursing exploration and morals is a piece of stage 3 of the nursing procedure. It is a significant piece of nursing exploration and it is a region wherein the wellbeing proficient is included every day especially in giving consideration to patients. Issues identifying with the investigation, plan, enrollment of members, criticism and information assortment strategies are dependent upon examination of a departmental morals advisory group and endorsement ought to be acquired. Assent was made sure about from the objective members by the analysts in help to their examination (Borbasi, et al. , 2008). Stage 3 incorporates the genuine information assortment appropriate to the investigation. In article one, the specialists evaluat

Change from Quantitative to Qualitative using template Article

Change from Quantitative to Qualitative utilizing layout - Article Example Research Purpose Thus, the point of this quantitative elucidating research study was to assess nurses’ information regarding the matter of avoidance of unpremeditated perioperative hypothermia (Hegarty, and ettal, 2009). Thus, Hegarty, and ettal (2009) sees that between 60%-90% perioperative patients by chance become hypothermic, which at that point brings about noteworthy negative results on the patient wellbeing, including expanded emergency clinic stays, just as further systems and even compelled to experience further analytic tests. It in this manner gets critical to each perioperative medical attendant to have a top to bottom attention to coincidental hypothermia, especially the hazard factors and ensuing intricacies. Research Question The examination question focuses on whether perioperative setting attendants do have adequate information base concerning the administration of their patients internal heat level in a characterized run, given the hindering results connected to coincidental hypothermia. Ordinarily, coincidental hypothermia among perioperative patients has been connected to denied tolerant results, whereby control of the patient internal heat level isn't under a characterized extend which can continue a steady body condition (Hegarty, and ettal, 2009). Educated Consent and Ethical Considerations This examination can be viewed as moral since it considers the essential moral standards of research involving self-rule, non-impropriety, and equity. Remarkably, moral endorsement was gained from pertinent clinical-investigate moral advisory groups, despite the fact that the scientists have not expressed explicitly the institutional names of the boards of trustees. Moreover, educated assent was the sign of their examination, since they utilized enlightening handout to advise the volunteers of their investment in the investigation, and in that capacity, interest was intentional and individual data obtained through polls were kept secret. Subsequ ently, the volunteers were given point by point reason and goals of the exploration concentrate in advance (Hegarty, and ettal, 2009). Configuration as far as structure, the analysts applied a semi exploratory plan whereby the sole variable was not affected or controlled. The qualities, test size, restrictions, and generally speaking ramifications have been featured similarly as required in any proof based nursing study. The investigation depends on a reflexive movement, which involved working through each period of the examination whereby the elements of creating hypothesis, assembling and breaking down of information, notwithstanding explaining of research questions have been done all the while (Hegarty, and ettal, 2009). Henceforth, every one of these capacities affected the others. Information Collection as far as information assortment, polls containing organized inquiries in a few handouts were filled by members, even as the whole overview bundle involved two study devices cus tom-made with assent from unique creators of the surveys. The expectation for fitting the overview apparatuses was to suit the perioperative setting medical caretakers working condition. In addition, the investigation members had the option to distinguish different procedures applied under their clinical-field when attempting to verify that their patients don't secure hypothermia. Altogether there were nine inquiries with the significant inquiries posing to the members to portray hypothermia and the other to list factors which can bring about hypothermia for their perioperative patients. They were likewise solicited to state likely sources from heat misfortune, the strategies every member applies in their

Celebrate Optimism Month in March

Celebrate Optimism Month in March Happiness Print Celebrate Optimism Month in March Optimism Month can bring many benefits By Elizabeth Scott, MS twitter Elizabeth Scott, MS, is a wellness coach specializing in stress management and quality of life, and the author of 8 Keys to Stress Management. Learn about our editorial policy Elizabeth Scott, MS Updated on January 12, 2018 Tim Robberts/Getty Images More in Self-Improvement Happiness Meditation Stress Management Spirituality Holistic Health Inspiration Brain Health Technology Relationships View All  Although March is Optimism Month, any month can be an opportunity to build your tendency toward grounded optimism, and reap the many benefits that come from this.  Optimism is associated with many benefits in life, including increased health, happiness, and longevity.   Although a tendency toward optimism is partially due to inborn factors like openness to experience and agreeableness, optimistic thinking patterns can be developed any time during your life and can bring big benefits with them.   Focusing on developing these thinking habits may take a little time, so focusing on them over the course of a month can help you to make this a lifelong habit.  Lets look a little closer on why its worth taking the time and effort to do this. How Optimism Benefits You People often wonder if those who are optimistic are only more likely to expect the best because they havent been disappointed by setbacks in life enough yet.  Or perhaps they are happier because they already have more to be happy about.  However, research finds that those who are optimistic tend to have more to be happy about because of benefits that they gain from their optimism, and not that they are merely more optimistic because they have had easier lives.   This is great news because it opens up the benefits of optimism to anyone who wants to change their perspective.  These benefits include greater success, physical and emotional health, and longevity, less stress, and more.     Why Celebrate Optimism Month? While you can focus on optimism any time from moment to moment and improve your outer and inner experience, focusing on optimism for a full month can really help you to make it more of an established part of your life.  This is true for several reasons: Optimism is about more than looking on the bright side.  Becoming more of an optimist may involve examining your current thinking patterns, deciding on new perspectives to adopt, developing new habits, and other actions.  This can take time.Habits take time to develop, whether were talking about habits of thought  or about lifestyle habits. Both types of habits can help you to be more of an optimist, so it helps to give yourself a few weeks to cement these new aspects of your life.Some changes may work better for you than others.  If you spend a month focusing on making optimism-supporting changes in your life, this gives you time to try and discard a few things before you settle on the changes that will work best for you.  (This is true whether youre focusing on optimism, happiness, stress relief, or anything else that requires change.) How to Celebrate   There are several ways to celebrate Optimism Month and make it work for you to the fullest.  Remember, March is the official Optimism Month, and you can use the momentum of a group by joining with others in celebrating optimism if you observe it in March.  However, you are welcome to make any month the month that you focus on optimism (or  begin  focusing on optimism more), and you can even recruit friends to join you, so dont let the date limit you.  As for what, specifically, you can do to celebrate, here are some ideas, each of which can be transformative: Learn about what optimism is and isn’t.  This will make it easier for you to know what direction you should be moving toward.Examine your habitual thought patterns, and see what you can change.Develop optimism-enhancing habits: maintain a gratitude journal, a coincidence journal, or a vision board.Look back and re-examine your past with more optimistic eyes.Practice other everyday optimism habits.

Financial Statement Analysis Between China Mobile and...

Financial Statement Analysis between China Mobile China Unicom in HK stock market âž ¢ China Mobile Brief description: The company: China Mobile (Stock Exchange of Hong Kong 941) Competitor: China Unicom (Stock Exchange of Hong Kong 762) It’s now estimated that China has more mobile phone users than any other country. According to statistics provided by the Ministry of Information Industry of the PRC, the number of mobile phone owners throughout the country totaled 539 million in November 2007. However, this is only a 41.5% penetration of the enormous population of 13 billion, and signals immense opportunity. Following the rapid growth of China’s per capita income, increasingly more people are finding†¦show more content†¦Basic EPS grew 31.0% to RMB4.35. This reflected a relatively high level of profitability growth and earnings capability. The Group sustained its robust cash flow as a result of favorable business growth, effective cost control measures, efficient capital expenditure and economies of scale. Net cash generated from operati ng activities and free cash flow reached 168,612 million and 63,473 million, respectively. Total debt to total book capitalization ratio and interest coverage multiple remained at a sound level. This reflected China Mobile’s commitment to consistently practise its prudent management discipline has earned good market recognition. Operating revenue for 2007 reached 356,959 million, up 20.9%. Leased Lines Self-constructed and jointly-constructed lines reached a sizeable scale through the continuous network structure optimization. The Group’s leased line expenses reflected a declining trend. While various businesses were growing at a high pace, the leased line expenses decreased by 121 million. The Group consistently endeavored to drive long-term, sustainable and favorable profitability growth. Margin of profit attributable to shareholders and EBITDA margin in 2007 remained relatively high at 24.4% and 54.3%, respectively. Profit from operations was 124,068 million and mai ntained a rapid and steady growth. EBITDA, profit attributable to shareholders andShow MoreRelatedCan Organisational Culture Be Changed?1376 Words   |  6 Pagescan improve employee satisfaction, customer satisfaction, financial performance and give the organisation a competitive advantage. Internal and external factors have a large impact on the four functions of management within an organisation. What these factors are and the kind of impact they have depends on the business and its particular goals. 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Shocking the Audience with the Article, Autism Is a...

The article â€Å"Autism Is a Serious Public Health Crisis† is presented in manner intended to generate a shock reaction in its selective audience. It does this by using scare tactics and repetitious trigger words such as lies, epidemic and crisis. Though this piece is intended to be informative about the autism crisis and the author’s perception of the truth behind its cause, the argument ultimately is one based in ignorance and heavily driven by pathos. The author of â€Å"Autism Is a Serious Public Health Crisis†, Anne Dachel, is among other things a former school teacher and an established advocate for autism awareness. She is also the parent of a child who was diagnosed with autism in the early 90’s. This article focuses primarily on what Dachel has titled â€Å"the really big lie† and the economical results that an aging population of autistic children will have on the nation. According to Dachel the â€Å"big lie† being told is that t he increased number of children being diagnosed with autism is as a result of better diagnosing abilities and higher awareness. Dachel expresses her belief that the CDC, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, is actually making these false claims as to why numbers are increasing in order to cover up the truth behind why autism numbers are on the rise and the CDC involvement in the cause. Anne Dachel is a major contributor to numerous autism websites, such as â€Å"Age of Autism†, a daily online newspaper dedicated to the topic of autism. In thisShow MoreRelatedINOCULATION TO DISABILITY AND DEATH1933 Words   |  8 Pagesdiseases, to becoming a killer inoculation? Are we still free to defend and decide for our health, or is there a danger of government actions with mass- vaccination mandates? There is a justified alarming concern on vaccines, not only in the population worldwide, but also in the medical personnel. The theory stated in some scientific groups, is that vaccines are not only harmful but also useless. In matter of health issues, science is the only honest filter we can use, looking at the critical dilemmaRead MoreChange Management49917 Words   |  200 Pageswhich may better serve the enterprise’s survival prospects. Change will not disappear or dissipate. Technology, civilizations and creative thought will maintain their ever accelerating drive onwards. Managers, and the enterprises they serve, be they public or private, service or manufacturing, will continue to be judged upon their ability to effectively and efficiently manage change. Unfortunately for the managers of the early twenty-first century, their ability to handle complex change situations willRead MoreStephen P. Robbins Timothy A. Judge (2011) Organizational Behaviour 15th Edition New Jers ey: Prentice Hall393164 Words   |  1573 PagesResearch: Dr. Judge’s primary research interests are in (1) personality, moods, and emotions; (2) job attitudes; (3) leadership and influence behaviors; and (4) careers (person–organization fit, career success). Dr. Judge has published more than 140 articles on these and other major topics in journals such as Journal of Organizational Behavior, Personnel Psychology, Academy of Management Journal, Journal of Applied Psychology, European Journal of Personality, and European Journal of Work and Organizational

Keeping Two Sets of Records Free Essays

Ethical Dimensions of Financial Accounting: Keeping two sets of Records Financial Accounting is an informational tool intended for both managers of a company and for external parties of an organization as defined by Garrison. There is also an existence of some regulatory bodies requiring the use of different principles accordingly within companies’ jurisdiction. In some cases, companies are required to keep two sets of accounting records. We will write a custom essay sample on Keeping Two Sets of Records or any similar topic only for you Order Now For example, publicly traded companies are required to use GAAP by the U. S. Securities and Exchange Commission. But GAAP and IFRS depreciation rules don’t always match up. Companies routinely account for earnings and expenses differently on their annual reports, compared with their tax returns . A contributing factor to keeping separate records is the different treatment in measuring income. The two approaches used in measuring income is the accrual-based and cash based accounting. As defined in our textbook Managerial Accounting by Garrison, Accrual accounting measures income as the difference between revenues recognized in the period versus and the expenses that are matched with those revenues. In contrast, cash basis accounting measures sales unless cash is actually received similarly with costs; they are deducted from sales in the same period they are paid for cash disbursements. Varying approach to accounting for depreciation is also permiited such as charging expense over a short period of time compared to its useful life of certain assets. (straight line method versus the accelerated depreciation). This lets the fixed assets expense higher at the early years of its acquisiton, thereby reducing taxable income. This approach to depreciation poses a benefit to a company to actually invest in fixed assets which may lead to operating efficiences. Another perspective is that businesss usually does a separate keeping of record for tax accounting purpose in order to minimize the possible amount of taxable income. In reality, companies tend to overstate income when the financial information is being presented to external creditors or investors, whereas understating it to government regulators. This is practically done by businesses to stay in business—which is logical and legal. The most important thing to be adhered is to report financials set within accordance to the tax regulations, otherwise a company will be subject to loss of credibilty and trustworthiness to stakeholders and other external parties. References: Is It Legal for a Business to Maintain Two Sets of Accounting Records? | eHow. com http://www. ehow. com/info_7840065_legal-two-sets-accounting-records. html#ixzz29M1e7rFq How to cite Keeping Two Sets of Records, Essay examples

Sensitivity Analysis and Parametric Programming

Question: Discuss about the Sensitivity Analysis and Parametric Programming. Answer: Introduction: The managers have showed their interest in the project by taking into the consideration the long-term benefit, which is attached with the project. The managers of the project have targeted the impact, which will be on future because of increasing fuel prices and the steps, which the government should take in order to reduce the impact of the air pollution. In addition to this, the managers are inclined to use the subsidiary benefits, which have been offered by the government (Aalto 2012). The managers have also stated to use the waste material in the form of raw material for new venture, as this will form an additional cost saving benefit for the company. It is worth mentioning that among the several tools of capital budgeting available Net Present value and annual annuity method is considered as the best suited technique which the company can use to determine the long term viability of the project in the log-run. Such tools would help in evaluating the changes of key variables such as sales and price of ethanol depending upon the feasibility of the project (Channon and Jalland 2016). In order to understand the value of the project, the managers should perform breakeven so that it can meet the environmental requirement regarding the disposal of waste beer. Coors stated that he could be satisfied with breakeven only if the project would cut down the further VOC emission assisting them to avoid any probable fines. It is noteworthy to denote that the investment analysis commenced with the forecasting of future cash flows. The incremental value for the project is to make pure fuel graded ethanol with incremental value of 5% of the gasoline, which must be added in contrast to the current price per gallon of gasoline. The managers have estimated that cost to be 15% of the revenue representing the incremental value of the project. The company anticipates it to be relatively stable for the next five years and this would for an approximate 20 cents per gallon of the ethanol. Rick on the other hand responded that the initial production capacity of 1.5 million is needed per year (Edwards 2013). The anticipated production for the initial year is 1.3 million of the gallon, which is anticipated to grow by 15% from the year 1994 to get 30% of the revenue per gallon and anticipated growth rate of 34% from the financial year of 1997 to 1998. The proposed production capacity with the current initial outlay should reach to two million gallon by the end of 1998. Being a joint venture Coors is aiming to realise a signi ficant portion of debt by splitting the current portion of the revenue between Coors and Merrick in a ratio of 30/70. Splitting would enable Coors to realise 30% of the revenue per gallon of ethanol. Cost involved for the project consists of freight cost, which amounts to $300 per truck for number of 30 trucks per day. Cost also include 10% of the factory time in order to manage the processing of yeast (Horngren et al. 2013). The average wages, which will be incurred over production process, accounts for $9.33 per hour. On the other hand, as far as benefits are concerned an anticipated savings of $0.30 for transportation are more likely to be earned. Coors also anticipates revenue of 30% of the revenue per gallon with a benefit of 40 cents per gallon and a tax incentive of 51 cents per gallon would be add beneficial for ethanol production. To analyse the appropriate opportunity cost of the project Coors should consider the weighted average cost of capital. Significant data were gathered to take into the consideration the weighted average cost of capital (Indounas 2014). The average market return for the project is estimated on the monthly data, which represented 12.6%. The estimation of the premium risk was based on the market risk where index data reflected 8.29% by taking into the consideration the inflation rate of 1991-1995 depending upon the consumer price index of 3.1%. Coors further planned to use this data to obtain a real discount rate so that it can discount the projects cash flow. Furthermore, to evaluate the viability of the ethanol project the Weighted Average Cost of Capital along with the beta value of company should be considered to understand the viability of the project. This is because the Peter knows the beta value of the company. However, the WACC of pioneer group had been decided to evaluate and d raw a comparable result with its competitor (Ittner and Michels 2015). The beta value of Great Plains is estimated to be 1.84 and the computations are based on the regression results performed for the last five months return of Coors. Depending upon the quantitative analysis Peter Coors optioned that the stewardship of the environment should be viewed as both personality responsibility as well as value for public. He went a step further by evaluating the quantitative as well as the qualitative aspects of the projects. By evaluating, the project based on the qualitative data by taking into the consideration the economic, environmental and social issues, which are concerned with the project (Morano and Tajani 2013). By undertaking the data obtained from the quantitative analysis it provides diversification of benefits of investments for the production of ethanol production. This is because the production of ethanol is not related to the production of beer. The study also reflects that undertaking the quantitative analysis ethanol additives would help in reducing the footprint of carbon in environment. This helps in promoting positive public relations for the company by being a good steward of the environment. In researching the ethanol prices, it has been discovered that the average whole price or in other words the rack price of ethanol during the last five years commencing from 1991-1995 was approximately around $1.20 per gallons. It is assumed that the current selling price of $1.35 per gallon of ethanol would fall down to approximate $1.20 per gallon. The assumption is relatively based on relative stableness for the next five years (Peters and Wieder 2015). On the other hand, the average demand for the ethanol will be based on the average factory wages. It is assumed that the aggregate factory worker wages is approximated around $9.33 and the Coors plans to use seven employees by dividing the shift into three eight-hour shift per day for distillation process of ethanol. The sensitivity of the data is based on the projected market analysis as the entire estimation is based on the historical data. The data are collected for the computation of the required rate of return of equity. The sensitivity of the data is based on the average risk free rate for treasury bills of three month, which is estimated to be around 4.31%. Such data could be viewed as market risk as it is based on the assumptions of 1991 to 1995 with SP index of 8.29% (Pratt 2013). The sensitivity of data is based on the average inflation rate from 1991 to 1995 depending upon the consumer price index of 3.1%. The sensitivity of the data is also based on the capital structure of the company with as the information of market structure values and interest rates of various type inflations. In addition to the financial analysis qualitative factors forms the imperative part for any undertaking any project. In the current case study, qualitative elements consist of the environmental and social factors concerning the project. The managers have cited that the economic viability of the project seems to be well organised as it involves diversification. Project diversification for the current study consist of the benefits, which will be obtained from the investment made in the ethanol production (Horngren et al. 2013). It should be noted that the production of ethanol is not related to the business of beer production. Furthermore, certain illustrations of qualitative issues have also been highlighted in this project, which should not be ignored. As stated by John that VOC emission which contaminate air at the projected savings of $33.00 per Tc of carbon Dioxide provides ethanol with additional additives, which lowers down the carbon footprint of the environment. The qualitativ e measures help in establishing enhanced public relations for the organisation, which ultimately promotes a better stewardship of the environment. To conclude with the project regarding the perceived trade-off for doing well and doing good there were a large number of information that has been provided to perform the relevant projections concerning the project. Based on the certain information received a forecasted cash flow statement was pending to be prepared depending upon the information received for the project. Preparation of the forecasted cash flow would enable the managers of the project to produce the Performa of Income statement (Peters and Wieder 2015). After preparation of both the projected cash flow and income statement is prepared, the management need to decide the appropriate amount of beta value to be computed which would decide the feasibility of the project by reflecting the Weighted Average Cost of Capital. Once the discounted rate of figure is obtained from the computation, the management need to evaluate the feasibility of the ethanol projected by comparing the data or figure obtained from the current mar ket projects. In addition to the above stated analysis, the management also need to perform the sensitivity analysis, which Peter has asked with Rick to derive certain data needed to assess the financial feasibility of the ethanol venture (Ittner and Michels 2015). The managers could make the conclusion of investigating the data of sensitivity analysis, which would help in highlighting the changes to be made to the key variables in accordance with the several economic and operational perspective. This would enable the mangers to derive conclusion of the result obtained, which would form a key variable regarding the certain changes to be made in the variable inputs (Baucells and Borgonovo 2013). Changes to the variable inputs consist of the demand for ethanol, current or prevailing conditions of the economic state, existing oil crisis, and increased level of competition from different alternatives of fuels along with the operational efficiency. It is evident from the project that the managers still need to perform several works but the overall assessment of the project provides that the production of ethanol is environmentally friendly keeping in view the sustainability of the project (Morano and Tajani 2013). The decision of making an investment in sustainability of the project allowed the managers to evaluate several business issues relating to the finance cost, accounting, management of operations and environmental management. The degree of reducing waste disposal cost and generation of revenues is the focus point concerning the project as it significantly provides the management of encouraging investment in environmentally safe projects. Reference List: Aalto, H., 2012. The compliance of budgeting and forecasting methods with organization design.Administrative Science Quarterly,41(1), pp.61-89. Baucells, M. and Borgonovo, E., 2013. Invariant probabilistic sensitivity analysis.Management Science,59(11), pp.2536-2549. Channon, D.F. and Jalland, M., 2016.Multinational strategic planning. Springer. Deegan, C., 2012.Australian financial accounting. McGraw-Hill Education Australia. Edwards, J.R., 2013.A History of Financial Accounting (RLE Accounting)(Vol. 29). Routledge. Gal, T. and Greenberg, H.J. eds., 2012.Advances in sensitivity analysis and parametric programming(Vol. 6). Springer Science Business Media. Horngren, C.T., Sundem, G.L., Schatzberg, J.O. and Burgstahler, D., 2013.Introduction to management accounting. Pearson Higher Ed. Indounas, K., 2014. CASE STUDY on BREAK-EVEN ANALYSIS.The ROI of Pricing: Measuring the Impact and Making the Business Case, p.142. Ittner, C.D. and Michels, J., 2015. Risk-Based Forecasting and Planning and Management Earnings Forecasts. Kaplan, R.S. and Atkinson, A.A., 2015.Advanced management accounting. PHI Learning. Mnster, J.G., Samuelsson, J., Kjeldsen, P., Rella, C.W. and Scheutz, C., 2014. Quantifying methane emission from fugitive sources by combining tracer release and downwind measurementsa sensitivity analysis based on multiple field surveys.Waste Management,34(8), pp.1416-1428. Morano, P. and Tajani, F., 2013. Break Even Analysis for the financial verification of urban regeneration projects. InApplied Mechanics and Materials(Vol. 438, pp. 1830-1835). Trans Tech Publications. Peters, M. and Wieder, B., 2015, October. Performance Measurement Information Systems: Do They Convey (Sustainable) Competitive Advantage? In8th Conference on Performance Measurement and Management Control. Pratt, J., 2013.Financial accounting in an economic context. Wiley Global Education.

The Use Of Symbolism In The Glass free essay sample

Menagerie Essay, Research Paper Symbolism is an facet used in several novels of today # 8217 ; s and yesterday # 8217 ; s universe. In the book, The Glass Menagerie by Tennessee Willams, symbols are a major portion of this drama. As Tom, the storyteller, is a poet, and admits he has a failing for symbols. There are three outstanding symbols in this drama that stick out more than anything. One major symbol presented in the narrative is the fire flight, a symbol that has a different significance and map for each character. For Tom, it is a manner of flight from fire, non the normal type of fire that would necessitate a fire truck, but # 8220 ; the slow and implacable fires of human desperation. # 8221 ; This is particularly true of Tom # 8217 ; s flat. His female parent, devastated after her girl Laura # 8217 ; s failure to get by in concern college, becomes obsessed with happening her a gentleman company so that she can get married and be good supported. We will write a custom essay sample on The Use Of Symbolism In The Glass or any similar topic specifically for you Do Not WasteYour Time HIRE WRITER Only 13.90 / page When this company eventually comes, and it seems like it was meant to be, as they dance and snog, he announces he is engaged, and destroys their hopes. The ever-fragile Laura, temporarily drawn out of her dream-world shell of her glass aggregation and the Victrola, draws farther back into herself. Now a awful despair fills the flat, and Tom decides he must get away the suffocating environment to follow his ain naming. The fire flight to him represents a way to the outside universe. For Laura, the fire flight is precisely the opposite # 8211 ; a way to the safe universe interior, a universe in which she can conceal. Especially symbolic is Laura # 8217 ; s autumn when falling the stairss to make a job for her female parent, after go forthing the security of the flat. This autumn symbolizes Laura # 8217 ; s inability to map in society and the outside universe. For Amanda, the fire flight is symbolic of her hopes and dreams # 8211 ; hopes and dreams that a gentleman company will get to get married her girl and go forth her good supported. This is the manner Jim comes into the flat, at the clip when Amanda # 8217 ; s hopes have been peaked. It is symbolic that Laura does non desire to open the door when Jim arrives. It shows her reluctance to allow a messanger from the universe of world, symbolized by Jim, invade the comfy non-existence of the flat, and her insecurity in covering with the exterior universe. Another repeating symbol in the narrative is that of the glass menagerie itself. This represents Laura # 8217 ; s oversensitivity and breakability. The first clip the menagerie is mentioned in any item in a symbolic mode is when Tom and Amanda have a heated statement near the beginning of the drama. Tom ends it by naming Amanda an # 8220 ; ugly babbling old enchantress # 8221 ; , and struggles to set his jacket on, purpose on go forthing. When he can non set the coat on decently, he becomes frustrated with his awkwardness, and throws it across the room, interrupting some of the glass aggregation. Laura # 8220 ; calls out as if wounded # 8221 ; . This shows how delicate Laura truly is, and how she r eacts even when their is a little alteration in her milieus. The most outstanding usage of this symbol comes at the turning point of the narrative, when Jim is left entirely with Laura. The conversation turns to Laura’s glass aggregation, when she comments â€Å"glass is something you have to take good attention of.† , once more demoing her breakability. More analogues are shown between Laura and the glass aggregation with the debut of the unicorn. Jim says â€Å"Poor small chap, he must experience kind of lonesome† to which Laura replies â€Å"He corsets on a shelf with some Equus caballuss that don’t have horns and all of them seem to acquire along nicely together.† The unicorn becomes a symbol for Laura–she is different. When Jim and Laura dance, and Jim by chance knocks the unicorn off the tabular array and its horn is broken, it loses its singularity. Similarly, when Jim kisses Laura and so shatters her hopes by stating her that heâ€⠄¢s engaged, she becomes broken-hearted, and less alone. Part of the artlessness that made Laura so different is gone, because both Laura and the glass menagerie interruption when exposed to the detached outside universe. When Laura gives Jim her broken unicorn, it symbolizes her broken bosom that Jim will take with him when he leaves. The unicorn is no longer alone like her, instead it is common now, like Jim, so she lets him maintain it. Merely as she gives Jim a small spot of herself to take with him, he leaves behind a small spot of himself with her shattered hopes. Finally, the symbol of rainbows is used throughout the narrative, but is less outstanding and obvious than those of the fire flight and the glass menagerie. Rainbows are traditionally a symbol of hope, and each clip the symbol is presented it is in a hopeful state of affairs. For case, when Tom comes back from the thaumaturgy show with a rainbow-coloured # 8216 ; charming # 8217 ; scarf, that can turn goldfish into Canary Islandss, who fly off. Just like the Canary Islandss, Tom besides hopes to wing off, from his flat. Following, the pendants which create rainbow contemplations at the Dance Hall can be seen as boding for the dance between Jim and Laura, which gives Laura hope that her jobs are solved. And at the terminal, when Tom looks at # 8220 ; pieces of coloured glass, like spots of a tattered rainbow, # 8221 ; he remembers his sister and hopes that he # 8220 ; can blow her tapers out # 8221 ; . There is besides a batch of sarcasm tied up in this symbol, in that although rainbows seem to be positive marks, they all end in letdown. Tennessee Williams has managed to make a fantastic and powerful drama utilizing a combination of different elements, with one being symbolism ; the fire flight, as a sense of hope, and an flight both to the outside universe and from it ; the glass menagerie, a symbol for Laura # 8217 ; s breakability and singularity ; and rainbows, as symbols of unfulfilled hopes and aspirations. Through these symbols a greater apprehension of the subject is realized, and # 8220 ; The Glass Menagerie # 8221 ; is made into a powerful heroic poem.

ESOPs Essays

ESOPs Essays ESOPs Essay ESOPs Essay There are numerous studies being conducted the world over to determine the interaction of several factors. Most of the research has the objective of evaluating the performance after the implementation of some programs. The business community from time to time institutes some programs that are thought to expand the business in one way or another. Various methodologies are available in literature and researchers are always presented with the difficulty of choosing one methodology over another. The varying methodologies are appropriate for different types of research and a clearer understanding of the advantages of one methodology over the other should be well known. This will lead to valid conclusions and enable researchers to make generalizations about the whole population.In 1974, the United States Congress enacted an Act aimed at encouraging employee own stock in the firms in which they worked. This was to be attained by introducing tax measures to encourage employee stock ownership plans (ESOPs). These measures have seen the numbers of employee owned companies increase to close to ten thousand from just above 1500 such companies. The numbers of employees owning stock also have increase to over eight million (Rosen Quarrey, 1987). A recent study was aimed at finding how the ESOPs had affected the governance of the companies. The research intended to find if the plan had worked to improve profitability and performance at the companies. The study sought to cool of the debate on whether the enactment of these laws was advantageous.The objective of the study was to identify the whether the ESOP companies had recorded faster growth than the other companies. Another objective was to determine whether the employees vigorously contributed ideas that shaped the company to attain any successes. The study took a sample of 45 ESOP companies and data was collected for five years prior and after implementation of the plan. This study design could be compared to the classical experimental design in which subjects under study are divided into two groups: the experimental or treatment group and the control group. In this case, the treatment group was the companies that had implemented the plan while the control group was the other companies that did not implemented the plan.This classical design setup is the best placed design since it controls against other factors that could affect the results of the study. Due to the long duration under which the study was being conducted, there were many factors that could contribute to the success or failure of the companies. The design used in this study was therefore appropriate sine it incorporated the control group. The design also allowed for the pretest and posttest to be performed on the companies. The data collected was for the duration prior to the implementation of the plan and after. This amounts to applying a treatment to some companies and then observing the results after some t ime. The results are than compared with those of the control group. Chances of other factors being involved are therefore minimized. Internal validity test was thus fulfilled. The study controlled against external factors by comparing with industry growth.The data is the most important part of any research. The data to be collected should be relevant and in line with the set objectives. The data collected for this study was data on sales and employment rates. These were the variables to be tested and they were in line with the study objectives. The analysis of the data showed that the implementation of the plan caused a significant positive effect on the performance of the company. The growth of the companies were traced over the duration before the implementation of the plan and compared with the growth over the five years after the implementation. This comparison showed that the growth rates after the plan implementation was much higher. This was rightly concluded to mean that the plan was responsible for the growth.In the analysis of the data also, the study concluded that there were no other factors that could have contributed to the growth. This was based on the tests carried out on other factors and they did not show significant interactions. On whether the implementation of the plan improved corporate performance, the study showed positive change. The ESOP companies that implemented employee participation plans were found to grow up to four times faster than the other ESOPs that did not have such a plan. This again rightly means that encouraging employee participation cultivates better work attitude leading to success of the company overall.The analysis on the non-ESOP companies indicated mixed results when the employee participation plan was implemented. This led to the conclusion that the participation plan works best when the company has converted to an ESOP. The conclusion is valid. If the participation plan was the contributing factor alone to the success of a company, the non-ESOP companies should have equally shown similar results with those of the ESOP companies. The results should have been uniform. The conclusion that the employees participate more in the company’s decision making is therefore justifiable. The explanation that involving the employee’s decisions in the company’s management creates an enthusiasm that motivates them to work harder also holds true.The researchers identified that the companies that allow their employees to own shares with them have better chances of performing well. The companies that intend to change the attitudes of their employees to motivate them to work harder should therefore consider going the ESOP way. The research also concluded that the employees were more likely to be comfortable with their pay since they know the profits belong to them.The above study was well planned and the objectives were well defined at the onset. The variables to be measured had also been clearly defined. The data that was collected was appropriate in meeting the set objectives. The design used in this study allowed the researchers to control the effects from other factors making the results valid. The interpretations give are also based on the data and are correct.

A review on software industry in the Gulf region Research Paper

A review on software industry in the Gulf region - Research Paper Example â€Å"There are many problems associated with tracking software imports and exports in trade statistics.† (OECD, 37). These problems include the hazy differentiation between software and software media trade, trade of software being a part of hardware, lack of measuring mechanism for the sale of intellectual property in international market. (OECD, 37). For obvious reasons this obscurity is even graver in gulf region states, who stepped into this industry late in 20th century and most of the software applications are imported from developed countries. The production and development of software in developed countries have raised serious concerns for the integrity of software industry itself as the bulk productions to realize rapid economic gains has forced deviations from the recommended software development framework and guidelines. Committee on the Off-shoring of Engineering (COE, 66) observes, â€Å"Scholars conceded that the effects of off-shoring on the quality of work do ne in developed nations are uncertain because we do not know whether the productivity gains will be captured by the developing countries or the developed countries.† Quality assurance is a core subject of software engineering and this stands true in any region and domain for which the software is being developed. The deviation from this basic guiding principal of software engineering has surfaced several legal and quality issues in gulf countries. This is especially true for the gulf region where software production is either offshore or in foreign control. â€Å"The wealthy Gulf nations have long relied on foreign (mostly American) contractors to build and maintain much of their IT base.† (Carmel, Paul, 24). This over reliance on foreign expertise has given birth to a variety of legal issues in software ownership, , legitimate use, quality and maintenance. Redha (n.p) the Business Software Alliance Chair, Gulf Region, while surfacing his concerns on quality and legal i ssues stressed, â€Å"While the region is seeing rapidly growing technological adoption and internet penetration, which is contributing to overall economic growth, we need to ensure that this growth is not compromised through software piracy.† The quality issues in offshore products are a common observation because of the variance in environment and culture of the software developer and user. COE (197) observes, â€Å"When we consider off-shoring, we must remember that there is great variability in software objectives, job types, and practices around the world.† Obviously, this variability may cause quality issue in a region where environment, software quality requirements and job types are considerably different. The fact has instigated a profound realization among Gulf States to develop an indigenous software industry, which can cater local requirement with minimum quality issues and legal breaches. The Gulf States, specially Iran, Saudi Arabia and Syria are now maki ng concentrated efforts to groom local software industry and the commitment of local software companies in the region may achieve better results for growth of software industry. However, the lack of latest technologies and the dearth of software engineers with required skills are two major areas where they face bottlenecks. Still quality can

The Age of New Media Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2500 words

The Age of New Media - Essay Example But, the flip side to all such developments is that the technology is also being used by some anti-social groups to carry out some destructive activities. For example, the terror network of groups like Al-Qaida etc. has been quite active in making use of networking, satellite communication etc. to shape up the nasty designs and thus causing tension in the society. Well, such groups have their own versions of truth, which they claim to be the motivation behind such acts. Therefore the governments of the world are supposed to come out with measures which can detect such designs and take corrective steps. The business world today has become quite competitive. With shrinking profit margins and high levels of competition, the corporate world has been trying to minimise the costs associated with the production and manufacturing of goods and services. Minimising the pilferage happens to be another key motive during the production and transportation of goods and services. Therefore the company management tries out ways and means to take effective control of such happenings and plan out strategies to counter them. Similarly, the retail industry is known to have a number of items on display in such a manner that customers can have a reassuring look at the items and if they feel convinced, they can purchase those products. But there are occasions when some unscrupulous elements try to lift the items without the knowledge of the sales person. To avoid such shop-lifting attempts, retail stores are supposed to put in place a mechanism so that they can keep an eye on suspicious elements. All such developments point out to one common phenomenon known as surveillance. If we take a look at the history of surveillance, the image of a burly spy in trench-coat standing on the roadside corner in the rain keeping an eye on the movement of the general public immediately comes to our mind. But the system of surveillance has graduated from this scenario and today the spy is not required to sweat out in the hot summer or drench himself in the rain, he can gather all the information on his desktop, laptop, palmtop, mobile or other handy gadgets, at the press of a button, thanks to the information gathering network. Though the modus operandi defers depending upon the importance and strategic nature of the surveillance, but one factor common in all such acts is the monitoring of our actions in different measure. While on the one hand we have biometrics machines on airports, railway stations, bus station, important offices etc. the RF tagging is used to keep an eye on goods as well as the movement of the workforce at many companies. A report brought out by the surveillance society in the year 2006 pointed out that the heightened concerns in view of the levels of intrusion in citizen's lives2. There are of course the incidents like the 9/11 attacks, the London bombing, the Mumbai shootout, the Pakistani bomb blasts, the Afghanistan war etc. which require intelligence inputs so that the terror elements are not in a position to work out similar incidents, but at

Analysis of Global Economic Growth

Analysis of Global Economic Growth World economic growth 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 World Economic Outlook: According to the World Bank, world economic growth accelerated sharply in 2004. In aggregate, the year 2004 has been the healthiest year for developing countries since the last three decades. East Asian countries have come out of the 1997 crisis and are now performing well. The ongoing economic boom in China as well as the surge in activities registered in Japan were major factors in promoting growth in the region. Latin American countries and Sub-Saharan Africa also had a better year. This performance reflects a fortuitous combination of long-term secular trends built on a foundation of better macroeconomic management and an improved domestic investment climate converging with a cyclical recovery of the global economy. There were however some lingering imbalances in the global economy associated with the rising twin deficits in the United States, a delayed recovery in Europe, coupled with high and volatile oil prices, and questions about the path of Chinas economy that might constitute risks to the pace of growth in developing countries over the medium term. Worlds economic growth is likely to slow down in 2005 with a projected rate of 3.2%. Several factors are likely to contribute to the slower growth. It is believed that the investment cycle in the US has peaked, therefore resulting in a slowdown in growth. Furthermore, world demand has far exceeded world supply, resulting in a substantial increase in oil and other commodity prices, therefore reducing demand in other countries. Also, increases in interest rates are likely to slow the investment growth. The US is likely to finance its large budget deficits through tighter fiscal policies and in Europe countries will tighten their budgetary control to remain within the realm of Maastricht limits. Table 1: World economic outlook Real Growth Rate (%) 2002 2003 2004 2005* World 1.7 2.7 4.0 3.2 High Income Countries 1.3 2.1 3.5 2.7 Euro Zone 0.9 0.5 1.8 2.1 USA 1.9 3.0 4.3 3.2 Japan -0.3 2.4 4.3 1.8 Developing Countries 3.4 5.2 6.1 5.4 East Asia and Pacific 6.7 7.9 7.8 7.1 Latin America and Caribbean -0.6 1.6 4.7 3.7 Sub Saharan Africa 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.6 *projected figures Source: Global Economic Prospects 2005, World Bank. 1.2 Mauritian Economic Outlook: Mauritian economic growth in 2004 was positive and stabilised at 4.2%, slightly lower than the 4.4% recorded in 2003. On the one hand, internal demand constituted an important dragging factor, with a 6.3% growth in consumption expenditure compared to 4.5% in 2003. On the other hand, lingering uncertainties linked to the wave of change in the international economic order, uninterrupted trade liberalisation and the gradual loss of our long-standing preferences had a dampening effect on growth. The recent run-up in oil prices was also a constraining factor on economic buoyancy. Business confidence appeared to be quite timid in 2004. However, in spite of an overall deceleration in the rate of investment, which grew by 5.5%, compared to 10.0% in 2003, private sector investment grew by a high 13.2% as opposed to a negative 2.2% in 2003. Moreover, international perception about Mauritius remained positive, and foreign investments in hotels and ICT projects were at a relatively high level. Despite the stable growth rate, several macroeconomic and sectoral performances were relatively unfavourable. Savings rate was lower, registering 23.3% of GDP in 2004 against 25.4% in 2003. Inflation rate was higher in 2004, reaching 5.5%, as opposed to 3.9% in 2003. Overall external trade worsened, from a surplus of Rs. 2 billion in 2003 to a deficit on Rs. 3.9 billion in 2004, as a result of a very large increase in the merchandise trade deficit, from Rs. 8.4 billion to Rs. 15.7 billion. On a sectoral basis, industries were faced with a restricted margin of manoeuvre as a result of increasing international competition from lower-cost producers. Repercussions were felt in the EPZ sector, which registered a negative growth rate of 5% in 2004, following the deceleration of 6% in 2003. The tourism sector, in spite of its apparent dynamism, recorded a growth rate of only 2.6%, compared to 3.0% in 2003. Financial services experienced some inertia, with a low expansion of 1.0%, compared to a high 7.2% in 2004. However, the agricultural sector expanded by 5.1% in 2004, in contrast to the low 1.9% recorded in 2003 and the non-EPZ sector grew by 5.0% in spite of the gradual reduction of tariff protection. 2.0 ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE FOR 2004 2.1 National Accounts: Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by a moderate 4.2% in 2004, compared to 4.4% in 2003. At current basic prices, GDP increased from Rs. 137.9 billion in 2003 to Rs. 151.7 billion. GDP per capita at current basic prices increased by 10.1%, to attain Rs. 122,984 in 2004. In US dollar terms, GDP per capita reached US$ 4,477, 11.7% higher than the previous year, when it reached US$4,010. It is worth noting also that at Purchasing Power Parity, GDP per capita in dollars was estimated at US$ 11,400 in 2003. For the second consecutive year, net income from the rest of the world was negative, with Rs. – 415 million in 2004, compared to Rs. – 833 million in 2003. Table 2: Output at current basic prices: Unit 2001 2002 2003 2004 Real GDP growth rate % +5.6 +1.8 +4.4 +4.2 GDP Rs. Million 117,720 125,260 137,868 151,725 Net income from abroad Rs. Million 393 396 833 415 GNI Rs. Million 118,113 125,656 137,035 151,310 GDP/capita Rs. 98,086 103,479 112,720 122,984 US$ US$ (PPP)* 3,380.9 9,609 3,462.2 10,810 4,010.0 11,400 4,477.4 n/a Exchange Rate, annual av. mid-rate Rs/$ 29.012 29.888 28.11 27.468 * GDP at Purchasing Power Parity provides a more reasonable international GDP comparison among nations.Source: CIA Fact Book 2004 While the EPZ sector continued to register negative growth rates for the third consecutive year, almost all other sectors recorded positive growth rates in 2004.   Non-EPZ grew by +5.0% in 2004, slightly lower than in 2003, when the growth rate was +5.8%. After high growth rates registered in 2002 (+7.6%) and 2003 (+11.1%) mainly due to high investment in building and construction works by the public sector, Construction grew by 3.1% in 2004. The distributive trade sector grew by 3.2%, slightly higher than the 3.1% recorded in the previous year. Transport and Communications activities expanded by 6.5% in 2004 as opposed to 6.1% in 2003. During the same period real estate, renting and business activities grew by 6.9% compared to 6.5% in 2003. Education, including services provided by public and private operators grew by 7.2% in 2004, compared to 5.3% in 2003, while health and social work expanded by 8.8% compared to 7.0% in 2003. Electricity, gas and water supply registered a growth of 4.2% as opposed to 4.6% in 2003. 2.2 Consumption Last years economic performance was once again influenced by internal demand. Total final contribution of consumption to GDP at market price was estimated at 77.3%, compared to 75.1% in 2003. Real final consumption expenditure, increased by 6.3% in 2004, compared to a 4.5% rise in 2003. This expansion in the consumption rate, which is much higher than the GDP growth rate, is clearly inflationary and has a negative direct impact on trade balance and budget deficit. It must be noted that private consumption represented 83.1% of total consumption in 2004, as opposed to 82.8% in 2003. A growth of 6.7% was observed in the consumption of households in 2004, against 4.9% in 2003. This is the highest growth rate recorded since 1989. On the other hand, the share of public sector consumption amounted to 16.9% of total consumption in 2004, showing a slight drop from the 17.2% observed in 2003. Public consumption grew by 4.4% compared to an increase of 2.6% in 2003. In 2004, the continued growth observed in total consumption has been largely sustained by the significant increase in average monthly income earnings of households. The average monthly earnings in large establishments grew by 12.8% between March 2003 and March 2004, to reach Rs. 11, 084. A general upward trend was observed in all industrial groups. The largest increase (+24%) was noted in public administration, following the implementation of the PRB in July 2004. Table 3: Consumption 2001 2002 2003 2004 Aggregate Final Consumption Household Central Government Rs b Rs. b Rs. b 97.0 80.2 16.8 106.6 88.3 18.3 118.3 98.1 20.2 135.1 112.2 22.9 Consumption as a % of GDP at MP % 73.4 75.0 75.1 77.3 Real Agg. Final Consumption growth o Household o Central Government % % % 3.3 3.0 4.7 3.2 3.3 4.1 4.5 4.9 2.6 6.3 6.7 4.4 Average monthly earnings (March) Rs. 8,701 9,159 9,826 11,084 Change in monthly earnings, Nominal % 6.4 5.3 7.3 12.8 2.3 Savings Investment Gross national savings, measured by the difference between Gross National Disposable Income and Total Consumption, increased in nominal terms by 1.8% to reach Rs 40.7 billion in 2004 from Rs 40.0 billion in 2003. Consequently, the saving rate, calculated as the ratio of GNS to GDP at market prices, showed a decline from 25.4% in 2003 to 23.3% in 2004. This decline results from an increase in both public and private expenditure. Table 4: Savings and investment 2001 2002 2003 2004 Gross National Savings (Rs. Billion) 37.6 38.7 40.0 40.7 Nominal Change (%) +2.8 +3.4 +1.8 GNS as a % of GDP at MP (%) 28.4 27.3 25.4 23.3 GDFCF (Rs. billion) Private Sector Public Sector 29.8 20.5 9.3 31.4 21.6 9.8 35.7 21.8 13.8 38.9 25.6 13.4 Real Change in GDFCF (incl aircrafts and vessels) , % +2.7 +1.9 +10.0 +5.5 Real Change in GDFCF (Excl. aircraft and vessels), % -2.6 +6.1 +7.9 +8.2 GDFCF as a % of GDP at MP 22.5 22.0 22.6 22.3 Investment, measured by the Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation (GDFCF), increased to Rs 38.9 billion in 2004 from Rs 35.7 billion in 2003. In real terms, including the purchase of aircrafts and marine vessels, total investment has followed an upward trend of 5.5% in 2004, but lower than the 10.0% growth recorded in 2003. It is interesting to note that net of the purchase of aircrafts and vessels, real investment grew by 8.2% in 2004, representing a better performance than in 2003, when it grew by 7.9%. Investment rate, measured as the ratio of GDFCF to GDP at market prices, has however gone down by 0.3%, to reach 22.3% in 2004 from 22.6% in 2003. Private sector investment continued to make up the bulk of GDFCF in 2004. It accounted for 65.6% of total investment in 2004, compared to 61.2% in 2003. This represented a real growth of 13.2% in 2004, after a negative growth rate of -2.2% in 2003. Higher private sector investment was accounted for by new hotels projects, where investment increased by 55.8% in 2004, as opposed to a negative growth of 21.8% in the preceding year. Moreover, there were additional investments in spinning mills and other projects in the EPZ sector, with an increase of 45.0% in 2004 as opposed to a negative 7.7% in 2003.Inversely, the share of public sector investment fell from 38.8% in 2003 to 34.4% in real terms in 2004. In fact, real public sector investment dropped by 6.6% in 2004, after a high 37.0% real growth in 2003, resulting from a record increase of 133.3% in investment in the construction sector in 2003. The resource gap, given by the difference between savings and investment, was again positive in 2004. However, there has been a significant contraction of 59.7%, from Rs. 4.3 billion in 2003 to reach Rs 1.7 billion in 2004, since investment increased more than savings. The direct consequence of this contraction is a further deterioration of the external account of goods and services. 2.4 Foreign Direct Investment In 2004, FDI inflow fell by 8.6% to reach Rs 1.79 billion against Rs 1.96 billion in 2003. A sharp contraction was observed in the banking sector, where only Rs. 121 million were invested in 2004, as opposed to a high Rs. 1.3 billion in 2003. In contrast, higher investments were recorded in the telecommunications sector in the wake of further liberalisation. Similarly, a total of Rs. 1.08 billion were invested in 2004 in other sectors of the economy, including IT, compared to only Rs. 485 million in 2003. The EPZ sector also attracted more FDI in 2004, with Rs. 248 million, compared to Rs. 77 million in 2003. The same upward trend was observed in the tourism sector, from Rs. 103 million in 2003 to Rs. 121 million in 2004. Table 5: Foreign Investment, Rs million 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Foreign Direct Investment 7,265* 936 979 1966 1,796 EPZ 8 3 41 77 248 Tourism 10 0 100 103 121 Banking 0 600 316 1301 310 Telecoms 7204 0 0 0 38 Others 43 333 522 485 1079 Direct Investment Abroad 333 83 278 1166 909 Net Foreign Direct Investment 6,932 853 701 800 887 * Includes receipts from the sales of Mauritius Telecom shares to France Telecom of Rs 7.2 billion 1 Revised Estimates Concerning outward investment, a high figure of Rs. 1.2 billion was recorded in 2003. However, in 2004, it fell to Rs. 887 million. 2.5   Balance of Payments The overall balance of payments in 2004, measured as a change in foreign reserve assets excluding valuation changes of the Bank of Mauritius, showed a surplus of Rs. 4.2 billion, compared to a surplus of Rs. 6.2 billion in the preceding year. In the first three quarters of 2004, the current account recorded a deficit of Rs. 2.3 billion, compared to a surplus of Rs. 1.8 billion in the corresponding period in 2003, reflecting a deterioration in the visible trade account. The balance of trade worsened from a surplus of Rs. 988 million in the first three quarters of 2003 to a deficit of Rs. 3.0 billion in the corresponding period of 2004. The capital and financial account, inclusive of reserves, recorded a net outflow of Rs. 163 million in the first three quarters of 2004 as opposed to a net outflow of Rs. 1.6 billion in the same period in 2003. At the end of December 2004, Net International Reserves amounted to Rs. 52.8 billion, 8% higher than in December 2003, when it reached Rs. 48.9 billion. Based on the value of the import bill, exclusive of the purchase of aircrafts and vessels, the level of net international reserves represented 39.6 weeks on imports at the end of December 2004. For the corresponding figure in 2003, it represented 36.6 weeks of imports. 2.6 External Trade Table 6: External Trade, Rs Billion 2001 2002 2003 2004 Trade in goods: Exports of goods – excl freeport activities (f.o.b) 47.5 47.3 46.2 48.9 Export of goods – freeport activities 7.3 6.6 6.8 6.8 Imports of goods – excl freeport activities (f.o.b) 53.8 56.0 57.5 67.6 Imports of goods – Freeport activities 5.2 4.2 3.9 3.8 Merchandise trade balance* 4.2 6.3 8.4 15.7 Trade in services Exports of services 35.6 34.4 35.7 39.8 Imports of services 23.6 23.7 25.3 30.0 Balance of trade in services 12.0 10.7 10.4 11.8 Overall trade balance 7.8 4.3 2.0 3.9 * Both Exports and imports are calculated on an f.o.b basis The overall balance of trade in goods and services marked a significant deterioration in 2004. In fact, there was a shift from a trade surplus of Rs. 2 billion in 2003 to a trade deficit of Rs. 3.9 billion in 2004. There was a sharp increase in the deficit in visible trade, which worsened by 87.1% in 2004. Trade in goods was largely biased against imports, therefore resulting in a faster growth in imports, which soared by 14.6% compared to a low 3.3% in 2003. Exports however grew at 7.6% in 2004 as opposed a meagre 0.5% in the preceding year.   On the other hand, trade in services fared well, registering a surplus of Rs. 11.8 billion in 2004, representing 13.5% more than in the previous year. Much of the increase in merchandise imports in 2004 was associated with investment projects, both in the public and private sector. For instance, appreciable increases were noted in the c.i.f value of cement (+57.6%), machinery and transport equipment (+25.9%), crude materials including textile fibres (+46.2%), and telecommunications equipment (+80.3%). Others are linked to an increasing food bill, with surge in the c.i.f value of food items (+14.9%) and of road vehicles (+53.1%). In fact, it is worth noting that in the fourth quarter of 2004, additional projects and events continued to contribute to boost the import bill. There were also new investment projects in EPZ and in energy production and the significant rise in the international price of petroleum products. Finally, the appreciation of the Rand (+13.2%), the Pound Sterling (+9.1%), the Australian Dollar (+9.2%) and the Euro (+7.1%) also contributed to the escalating visible trade deficit. Box: 1 Exports lack dynamics: Although the Mauritian rupee continued to depreciate against major currencies, including the Euro, exports growth remained relatively static over the past few years. A combination of factors resulted in such a situation. Our markets remained relatively undiversified, with a high concentration in Europe. In the past few years, especially since the advent of the Euro in 2000, the Euro Zone has been relatively less dynamic than other countries like China and the US. Our exports to the most dynamic zones have remained however low. Some of the factors responsible for this lack of dynamism include erosion of our long-standing preferences, rising costs of production and the mismatch of skills on the labour market. Trade in services on the other hand, recorded a surplus of Rs. 11.8 billion, 13.5% higher than in the previous year. This is in part, due to higher earnings from the travel industry benefiting from the windfall gains of a strong euro and a strong pound sterling. Exports of services surged by 11.4% in 2004, from Rs. 35.7 billion in 2003 to Rs. 39.8 billion in 2004, whereas there was a 10.6% increase in the imports of services during the same period of time, from Rs. 25.3 billion to Rs. 30.0 billion. 2.7 Inflation Table 7: Inflation Rate, % Calendar Yr Inflation rate (%) Fiscal Yr Inflation rate (%) 2001 5.4 01/02 6.3 2002 6.4 02/03 5.1 2003 3.9 03/04 3.9 2004 4.7 04/05 5.5 The inflation rate, as measured by the percentage change in the yearly average consumer price index reached 4.7% for calendar year 2004 compared to 3.9% in 2003.   This was mainly the result of a combination of domestic and external factors. There were significant increases in the price of subsidised flour (+17%) and rice (+40%). The rise in the price of flour led to an increase in the price of bread by 12%. The price of other food items, such as chicken (+8.8%), fish (+8.5%) , beef (+9.7%), and frozen mutton (+15.2%)   also went up in 2004. In addition, the rise in international oil prices had spill over effects on the domestic economy. There were three successive increases in the price of gasoline and diesel oil. The price of gasoline increased by a total of 27.9% and the price of diesel oil rose by 45.0%, therefore causing subsequent surges in electricity tariffs (+5.1%), bus fares (+13.3%), taxi fares (+15.4%) and air fares (+16.0%). Finally, the prevailing high budget deficit and the sustained level of public investment also contributed to inflationary pressures. 2.8 Employment/ Unemployment Until 2003, labour force statistics were estimated on the basis of the Population census or Labour Force Sample Survey. A new methodology, named the Continuous Multi Purpose Household Survey   (CMPHS) was introduced in March 2004 to estimate the labour force, employment and unemployment rate. It is based on a sample of households that presently covers a total 8,640 households for the whole of 2004. Estimates are conducted on a quarterly basis, on 2,160 households per quarter. In the new CMPHS, the lower age cut-off point to estimate the labour force was brought to 15 years instead of 12 years used previously. A few inconsistencies with regard to the results of the survey have been noted, which probably indicate some weaknesses in the new methodology. The table below gives the estimated figures for the 3 quarters of 2004: Table 8: March 2004 – Estimates June 2004 – Estimates September 2004 – Estimates Labour force Male Female 541,100 348,700 192,400 540,700 347,500 193,200 527,800 349,400 178,400 Employment Male Female 494,100 328,400 165,700 491,200 324,600 166,600 483,500 329,800 153,700 Unemployment Male Female 47,000 20,300 26,700 49,500 22,900 26,600 44,300 19,600 24,700 Unemployment Rate (%) 8.7 9.2 8.4 Contrary to what one would logically expect, the CMPHS estimates indicate a downward trend in the labour force over the three quarters. From March to June, there was a fall of 400 people in the labour force. However, a larger fall was observed, with a contraction of 12,900 jobs from June to September Analysis of Global Economic Growth Analysis of Global Economic Growth World economic growth 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 World Economic Outlook: According to the World Bank, world economic growth accelerated sharply in 2004. In aggregate, the year 2004 has been the healthiest year for developing countries since the last three decades. East Asian countries have come out of the 1997 crisis and are now performing well. The ongoing economic boom in China as well as the surge in activities registered in Japan were major factors in promoting growth in the region. Latin American countries and Sub-Saharan Africa also had a better year. This performance reflects a fortuitous combination of long-term secular trends built on a foundation of better macroeconomic management and an improved domestic investment climate converging with a cyclical recovery of the global economy. There were however some lingering imbalances in the global economy associated with the rising twin deficits in the United States, a delayed recovery in Europe, coupled with high and volatile oil prices, and questions about the path of Chinas economy that might constitute risks to the pace of growth in developing countries over the medium term. Worlds economic growth is likely to slow down in 2005 with a projected rate of 3.2%. Several factors are likely to contribute to the slower growth. It is believed that the investment cycle in the US has peaked, therefore resulting in a slowdown in growth. Furthermore, world demand has far exceeded world supply, resulting in a substantial increase in oil and other commodity prices, therefore reducing demand in other countries. Also, increases in interest rates are likely to slow the investment growth. The US is likely to finance its large budget deficits through tighter fiscal policies and in Europe countries will tighten their budgetary control to remain within the realm of Maastricht limits. Table 1: World economic outlook Real Growth Rate (%) 2002 2003 2004 2005* World 1.7 2.7 4.0 3.2 High Income Countries 1.3 2.1 3.5 2.7 Euro Zone 0.9 0.5 1.8 2.1 USA 1.9 3.0 4.3 3.2 Japan -0.3 2.4 4.3 1.8 Developing Countries 3.4 5.2 6.1 5.4 East Asia and Pacific 6.7 7.9 7.8 7.1 Latin America and Caribbean -0.6 1.6 4.7 3.7 Sub Saharan Africa 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.6 *projected figures Source: Global Economic Prospects 2005, World Bank. 1.2 Mauritian Economic Outlook: Mauritian economic growth in 2004 was positive and stabilised at 4.2%, slightly lower than the 4.4% recorded in 2003. On the one hand, internal demand constituted an important dragging factor, with a 6.3% growth in consumption expenditure compared to 4.5% in 2003. On the other hand, lingering uncertainties linked to the wave of change in the international economic order, uninterrupted trade liberalisation and the gradual loss of our long-standing preferences had a dampening effect on growth. The recent run-up in oil prices was also a constraining factor on economic buoyancy. Business confidence appeared to be quite timid in 2004. However, in spite of an overall deceleration in the rate of investment, which grew by 5.5%, compared to 10.0% in 2003, private sector investment grew by a high 13.2% as opposed to a negative 2.2% in 2003. Moreover, international perception about Mauritius remained positive, and foreign investments in hotels and ICT projects were at a relatively high level. Despite the stable growth rate, several macroeconomic and sectoral performances were relatively unfavourable. Savings rate was lower, registering 23.3% of GDP in 2004 against 25.4% in 2003. Inflation rate was higher in 2004, reaching 5.5%, as opposed to 3.9% in 2003. Overall external trade worsened, from a surplus of Rs. 2 billion in 2003 to a deficit on Rs. 3.9 billion in 2004, as a result of a very large increase in the merchandise trade deficit, from Rs. 8.4 billion to Rs. 15.7 billion. On a sectoral basis, industries were faced with a restricted margin of manoeuvre as a result of increasing international competition from lower-cost producers. Repercussions were felt in the EPZ sector, which registered a negative growth rate of 5% in 2004, following the deceleration of 6% in 2003. The tourism sector, in spite of its apparent dynamism, recorded a growth rate of only 2.6%, compared to 3.0% in 2003. Financial services experienced some inertia, with a low expansion of 1.0%, compared to a high 7.2% in 2004. However, the agricultural sector expanded by 5.1% in 2004, in contrast to the low 1.9% recorded in 2003 and the non-EPZ sector grew by 5.0% in spite of the gradual reduction of tariff protection. 2.0 ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE FOR 2004 2.1 National Accounts: Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by a moderate 4.2% in 2004, compared to 4.4% in 2003. At current basic prices, GDP increased from Rs. 137.9 billion in 2003 to Rs. 151.7 billion. GDP per capita at current basic prices increased by 10.1%, to attain Rs. 122,984 in 2004. In US dollar terms, GDP per capita reached US$ 4,477, 11.7% higher than the previous year, when it reached US$4,010. It is worth noting also that at Purchasing Power Parity, GDP per capita in dollars was estimated at US$ 11,400 in 2003. For the second consecutive year, net income from the rest of the world was negative, with Rs. – 415 million in 2004, compared to Rs. – 833 million in 2003. Table 2: Output at current basic prices: Unit 2001 2002 2003 2004 Real GDP growth rate % +5.6 +1.8 +4.4 +4.2 GDP Rs. Million 117,720 125,260 137,868 151,725 Net income from abroad Rs. Million 393 396 833 415 GNI Rs. Million 118,113 125,656 137,035 151,310 GDP/capita Rs. 98,086 103,479 112,720 122,984 US$ US$ (PPP)* 3,380.9 9,609 3,462.2 10,810 4,010.0 11,400 4,477.4 n/a Exchange Rate, annual av. mid-rate Rs/$ 29.012 29.888 28.11 27.468 * GDP at Purchasing Power Parity provides a more reasonable international GDP comparison among nations.Source: CIA Fact Book 2004 While the EPZ sector continued to register negative growth rates for the third consecutive year, almost all other sectors recorded positive growth rates in 2004.   Non-EPZ grew by +5.0% in 2004, slightly lower than in 2003, when the growth rate was +5.8%. After high growth rates registered in 2002 (+7.6%) and 2003 (+11.1%) mainly due to high investment in building and construction works by the public sector, Construction grew by 3.1% in 2004. The distributive trade sector grew by 3.2%, slightly higher than the 3.1% recorded in the previous year. Transport and Communications activities expanded by 6.5% in 2004 as opposed to 6.1% in 2003. During the same period real estate, renting and business activities grew by 6.9% compared to 6.5% in 2003. Education, including services provided by public and private operators grew by 7.2% in 2004, compared to 5.3% in 2003, while health and social work expanded by 8.8% compared to 7.0% in 2003. Electricity, gas and water supply registered a growth of 4.2% as opposed to 4.6% in 2003. 2.2 Consumption Last years economic performance was once again influenced by internal demand. Total final contribution of consumption to GDP at market price was estimated at 77.3%, compared to 75.1% in 2003. Real final consumption expenditure, increased by 6.3% in 2004, compared to a 4.5% rise in 2003. This expansion in the consumption rate, which is much higher than the GDP growth rate, is clearly inflationary and has a negative direct impact on trade balance and budget deficit. It must be noted that private consumption represented 83.1% of total consumption in 2004, as opposed to 82.8% in 2003. A growth of 6.7% was observed in the consumption of households in 2004, against 4.9% in 2003. This is the highest growth rate recorded since 1989. On the other hand, the share of public sector consumption amounted to 16.9% of total consumption in 2004, showing a slight drop from the 17.2% observed in 2003. Public consumption grew by 4.4% compared to an increase of 2.6% in 2003. In 2004, the continued growth observed in total consumption has been largely sustained by the significant increase in average monthly income earnings of households. The average monthly earnings in large establishments grew by 12.8% between March 2003 and March 2004, to reach Rs. 11, 084. A general upward trend was observed in all industrial groups. The largest increase (+24%) was noted in public administration, following the implementation of the PRB in July 2004. Table 3: Consumption 2001 2002 2003 2004 Aggregate Final Consumption Household Central Government Rs b Rs. b Rs. b 97.0 80.2 16.8 106.6 88.3 18.3 118.3 98.1 20.2 135.1 112.2 22.9 Consumption as a % of GDP at MP % 73.4 75.0 75.1 77.3 Real Agg. Final Consumption growth o Household o Central Government % % % 3.3 3.0 4.7 3.2 3.3 4.1 4.5 4.9 2.6 6.3 6.7 4.4 Average monthly earnings (March) Rs. 8,701 9,159 9,826 11,084 Change in monthly earnings, Nominal % 6.4 5.3 7.3 12.8 2.3 Savings Investment Gross national savings, measured by the difference between Gross National Disposable Income and Total Consumption, increased in nominal terms by 1.8% to reach Rs 40.7 billion in 2004 from Rs 40.0 billion in 2003. Consequently, the saving rate, calculated as the ratio of GNS to GDP at market prices, showed a decline from 25.4% in 2003 to 23.3% in 2004. This decline results from an increase in both public and private expenditure. Table 4: Savings and investment 2001 2002 2003 2004 Gross National Savings (Rs. Billion) 37.6 38.7 40.0 40.7 Nominal Change (%) +2.8 +3.4 +1.8 GNS as a % of GDP at MP (%) 28.4 27.3 25.4 23.3 GDFCF (Rs. billion) Private Sector Public Sector 29.8 20.5 9.3 31.4 21.6 9.8 35.7 21.8 13.8 38.9 25.6 13.4 Real Change in GDFCF (incl aircrafts and vessels) , % +2.7 +1.9 +10.0 +5.5 Real Change in GDFCF (Excl. aircraft and vessels), % -2.6 +6.1 +7.9 +8.2 GDFCF as a % of GDP at MP 22.5 22.0 22.6 22.3 Investment, measured by the Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation (GDFCF), increased to Rs 38.9 billion in 2004 from Rs 35.7 billion in 2003. In real terms, including the purchase of aircrafts and marine vessels, total investment has followed an upward trend of 5.5% in 2004, but lower than the 10.0% growth recorded in 2003. It is interesting to note that net of the purchase of aircrafts and vessels, real investment grew by 8.2% in 2004, representing a better performance than in 2003, when it grew by 7.9%. Investment rate, measured as the ratio of GDFCF to GDP at market prices, has however gone down by 0.3%, to reach 22.3% in 2004 from 22.6% in 2003. Private sector investment continued to make up the bulk of GDFCF in 2004. It accounted for 65.6% of total investment in 2004, compared to 61.2% in 2003. This represented a real growth of 13.2% in 2004, after a negative growth rate of -2.2% in 2003. Higher private sector investment was accounted for by new hotels projects, where investment increased by 55.8% in 2004, as opposed to a negative growth of 21.8% in the preceding year. Moreover, there were additional investments in spinning mills and other projects in the EPZ sector, with an increase of 45.0% in 2004 as opposed to a negative 7.7% in 2003.Inversely, the share of public sector investment fell from 38.8% in 2003 to 34.4% in real terms in 2004. In fact, real public sector investment dropped by 6.6% in 2004, after a high 37.0% real growth in 2003, resulting from a record increase of 133.3% in investment in the construction sector in 2003. The resource gap, given by the difference between savings and investment, was again positive in 2004. However, there has been a significant contraction of 59.7%, from Rs. 4.3 billion in 2003 to reach Rs 1.7 billion in 2004, since investment increased more than savings. The direct consequence of this contraction is a further deterioration of the external account of goods and services. 2.4 Foreign Direct Investment In 2004, FDI inflow fell by 8.6% to reach Rs 1.79 billion against Rs 1.96 billion in 2003. A sharp contraction was observed in the banking sector, where only Rs. 121 million were invested in 2004, as opposed to a high Rs. 1.3 billion in 2003. In contrast, higher investments were recorded in the telecommunications sector in the wake of further liberalisation. Similarly, a total of Rs. 1.08 billion were invested in 2004 in other sectors of the economy, including IT, compared to only Rs. 485 million in 2003. The EPZ sector also attracted more FDI in 2004, with Rs. 248 million, compared to Rs. 77 million in 2003. The same upward trend was observed in the tourism sector, from Rs. 103 million in 2003 to Rs. 121 million in 2004. Table 5: Foreign Investment, Rs million 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Foreign Direct Investment 7,265* 936 979 1966 1,796 EPZ 8 3 41 77 248 Tourism 10 0 100 103 121 Banking 0 600 316 1301 310 Telecoms 7204 0 0 0 38 Others 43 333 522 485 1079 Direct Investment Abroad 333 83 278 1166 909 Net Foreign Direct Investment 6,932 853 701 800 887 * Includes receipts from the sales of Mauritius Telecom shares to France Telecom of Rs 7.2 billion 1 Revised Estimates Concerning outward investment, a high figure of Rs. 1.2 billion was recorded in 2003. However, in 2004, it fell to Rs. 887 million. 2.5   Balance of Payments The overall balance of payments in 2004, measured as a change in foreign reserve assets excluding valuation changes of the Bank of Mauritius, showed a surplus of Rs. 4.2 billion, compared to a surplus of Rs. 6.2 billion in the preceding year. In the first three quarters of 2004, the current account recorded a deficit of Rs. 2.3 billion, compared to a surplus of Rs. 1.8 billion in the corresponding period in 2003, reflecting a deterioration in the visible trade account. The balance of trade worsened from a surplus of Rs. 988 million in the first three quarters of 2003 to a deficit of Rs. 3.0 billion in the corresponding period of 2004. The capital and financial account, inclusive of reserves, recorded a net outflow of Rs. 163 million in the first three quarters of 2004 as opposed to a net outflow of Rs. 1.6 billion in the same period in 2003. At the end of December 2004, Net International Reserves amounted to Rs. 52.8 billion, 8% higher than in December 2003, when it reached Rs. 48.9 billion. Based on the value of the import bill, exclusive of the purchase of aircrafts and vessels, the level of net international reserves represented 39.6 weeks on imports at the end of December 2004. For the corresponding figure in 2003, it represented 36.6 weeks of imports. 2.6 External Trade Table 6: External Trade, Rs Billion 2001 2002 2003 2004 Trade in goods: Exports of goods – excl freeport activities (f.o.b) 47.5 47.3 46.2 48.9 Export of goods – freeport activities 7.3 6.6 6.8 6.8 Imports of goods – excl freeport activities (f.o.b) 53.8 56.0 57.5 67.6 Imports of goods – Freeport activities 5.2 4.2 3.9 3.8 Merchandise trade balance* 4.2 6.3 8.4 15.7 Trade in services Exports of services 35.6 34.4 35.7 39.8 Imports of services 23.6 23.7 25.3 30.0 Balance of trade in services 12.0 10.7 10.4 11.8 Overall trade balance 7.8 4.3 2.0 3.9 * Both Exports and imports are calculated on an f.o.b basis The overall balance of trade in goods and services marked a significant deterioration in 2004. In fact, there was a shift from a trade surplus of Rs. 2 billion in 2003 to a trade deficit of Rs. 3.9 billion in 2004. There was a sharp increase in the deficit in visible trade, which worsened by 87.1% in 2004. Trade in goods was largely biased against imports, therefore resulting in a faster growth in imports, which soared by 14.6% compared to a low 3.3% in 2003. Exports however grew at 7.6% in 2004 as opposed a meagre 0.5% in the preceding year.   On the other hand, trade in services fared well, registering a surplus of Rs. 11.8 billion in 2004, representing 13.5% more than in the previous year. Much of the increase in merchandise imports in 2004 was associated with investment projects, both in the public and private sector. For instance, appreciable increases were noted in the c.i.f value of cement (+57.6%), machinery and transport equipment (+25.9%), crude materials including textile fibres (+46.2%), and telecommunications equipment (+80.3%). Others are linked to an increasing food bill, with surge in the c.i.f value of food items (+14.9%) and of road vehicles (+53.1%). In fact, it is worth noting that in the fourth quarter of 2004, additional projects and events continued to contribute to boost the import bill. There were also new investment projects in EPZ and in energy production and the significant rise in the international price of petroleum products. Finally, the appreciation of the Rand (+13.2%), the Pound Sterling (+9.1%), the Australian Dollar (+9.2%) and the Euro (+7.1%) also contributed to the escalating visible trade deficit. Box: 1 Exports lack dynamics: Although the Mauritian rupee continued to depreciate against major currencies, including the Euro, exports growth remained relatively static over the past few years. A combination of factors resulted in such a situation. Our markets remained relatively undiversified, with a high concentration in Europe. In the past few years, especially since the advent of the Euro in 2000, the Euro Zone has been relatively less dynamic than other countries like China and the US. Our exports to the most dynamic zones have remained however low. Some of the factors responsible for this lack of dynamism include erosion of our long-standing preferences, rising costs of production and the mismatch of skills on the labour market. Trade in services on the other hand, recorded a surplus of Rs. 11.8 billion, 13.5% higher than in the previous year. This is in part, due to higher earnings from the travel industry benefiting from the windfall gains of a strong euro and a strong pound sterling. Exports of services surged by 11.4% in 2004, from Rs. 35.7 billion in 2003 to Rs. 39.8 billion in 2004, whereas there was a 10.6% increase in the imports of services during the same period of time, from Rs. 25.3 billion to Rs. 30.0 billion. 2.7 Inflation Table 7: Inflation Rate, % Calendar Yr Inflation rate (%) Fiscal Yr Inflation rate (%) 2001 5.4 01/02 6.3 2002 6.4 02/03 5.1 2003 3.9 03/04 3.9 2004 4.7 04/05 5.5 The inflation rate, as measured by the percentage change in the yearly average consumer price index reached 4.7% for calendar year 2004 compared to 3.9% in 2003.   This was mainly the result of a combination of domestic and external factors. There were significant increases in the price of subsidised flour (+17%) and rice (+40%). The rise in the price of flour led to an increase in the price of bread by 12%. The price of other food items, such as chicken (+8.8%), fish (+8.5%) , beef (+9.7%), and frozen mutton (+15.2%)   also went up in 2004. In addition, the rise in international oil prices had spill over effects on the domestic economy. There were three successive increases in the price of gasoline and diesel oil. The price of gasoline increased by a total of 27.9% and the price of diesel oil rose by 45.0%, therefore causing subsequent surges in electricity tariffs (+5.1%), bus fares (+13.3%), taxi fares (+15.4%) and air fares (+16.0%). Finally, the prevailing high budget deficit and the sustained level of public investment also contributed to inflationary pressures. 2.8 Employment/ Unemployment Until 2003, labour force statistics were estimated on the basis of the Population census or Labour Force Sample Survey. A new methodology, named the Continuous Multi Purpose Household Survey   (CMPHS) was introduced in March 2004 to estimate the labour force, employment and unemployment rate. It is based on a sample of households that presently covers a total 8,640 households for the whole of 2004. Estimates are conducted on a quarterly basis, on 2,160 households per quarter. In the new CMPHS, the lower age cut-off point to estimate the labour force was brought to 15 years instead of 12 years used previously. A few inconsistencies with regard to the results of the survey have been noted, which probably indicate some weaknesses in the new methodology. The table below gives the estimated figures for the 3 quarters of 2004: Table 8: March 2004 – Estimates June 2004 – Estimates September 2004 – Estimates Labour force Male Female 541,100 348,700 192,400 540,700 347,500 193,200 527,800 349,400 178,400 Employment Male Female 494,100 328,400 165,700 491,200 324,600 166,600 483,500 329,800 153,700 Unemployment Male Female 47,000 20,300 26,700 49,500 22,900 26,600 44,300 19,600 24,700 Unemployment Rate (%) 8.7 9.2 8.4 Contrary to what one would logically expect, the CMPHS estimates indicate a downward trend in the labour force over the three quarters. From March to June, there was a fall of 400 people in the labour force. However, a larger fall was observed, with a contraction of 12,900 jobs from June to September